AFL Betting Tips Round 6
Nine games across four days – and the model has…
Melbourne vs Collingwood Prediction
Game 8 of Round 13 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on June 9 sees Melbourne vs Collingwood at the MCG on Monday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies Predictions
Monday, June 9, 2026
3:20 pm AEDT @ the MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Melbourne
77 : 83
Collingwood
Win Percentages
Melbourne
37.08%
37.08%
Collingwood
62.92%
62.92%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing, Unibet had the head-to-head for the Melbourne Demons set at $3.75, and $1.25 for the Collingwood Magpies. This implies:
(Implied probabilities sum to >100% due to bookmaker margin. Normalized: 26.67/106.67 ≈ 25.00%, 80/106.67 ≈ 75.00%.)
The Betting Edge
Our model gives Melbourne 37.08% vs Collingwood 62.92%. Collingwood’s normalized implied chance is 75.00%, so the line suggests slight overconfidence–value on Collingwood head-to-head @ $1.25 (true odds ≈ $1.59).
Power Rankings Breakdown
Melbourne vs Collingwood Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For: Collingwood by 14.4
- Average Points Against: Collingwood by 22
- Power Rank: Collingwood by 11
- Average Winning Margin: Collingwood by 10.60
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Collingwood by 2
- Win Percentage: Collingwood by 42%
- Average Opponent Rank: Collingwood by 6
- Average Opponent Win %: Melbourne by 21%
- Average Opponent Points For: Melbourne by 9
- Highest Score For: Collingwood by 5
- Highest Score Against: Collingwood by 21
- Highest Total Match Score: Melbourne by 22
- Lowest Total Match Score: Collingwood by 22
- Adjusted Points For: Collingwood by 2
- Adjusted Points Against: Collingwood by 13
- True Power Score (Weighted): Collingwood by 10
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 162.5
- Game Style Prediction: Blowout – Moderate Scoring
Over/Under Tempo: 162.5
Game Style Prediction: Blowout – moderate scoring expected, as Collingwood’s offense and defense both rate significantly higher.
What to do?
Best bet: Collingwood head-to-head @ $1.25.
Melbourne vs Collingwood Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Collingwood Multi Tip:
Collingwood −23.5
Collingwood 1–39
@ $5.72* with Unibet
*Approximate combined odds: Collingwood −23.5 @ $1.88 × Collingwood 1–39 @ $2.02 ≈ $3.80, plus bookmaker rounding.
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