Collingwood vs Sydney Prediction

According to the bookies, the Magpies are sitting at $1.62, which implies they win this 58.7% of the time. But based on our numbers, we’ve only got them at a 54.5% chance, so the value isn’t really there for backing Collingwood at that price.

Now flip it to the Swans. The bookies reckon they’ve only got a 41.3% shot at the win, but our model gives them a stronger 45.5% chance. That gap might not seem huge, but it’s just enough to open the door for a value play. At $2.20, there’s a little bit of juice in backing Sydney if our model’s on the money.

In Summary

The betting edge here leans toward the Sydney Swans. While Collingwood are rightly favourites, the bookies might be underrating the Swans just a tad. If our analysis is on point, that $2.20 for Sydney represents a sneaky bit of value worth considering.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Collingwood: 81.8, Sydney: 85.8 – (Sydney by 4 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Collingwood: 66.3, Sydney: 74.8 – (Collingwood by 8.5 points)
• Average Winning Margin: Collingwood: 38.0, Sydney: 34.0 – (Collingwood by 4 points)
• Average Losing Margin: Collingwood: 52.0, Sydney: 12.0 – (Sydney more resilient by 40 points)
• HT/FT Double %: Collingwood: 25.0%, Sydney: 25.0% – (Even)
• Highest Score For: Collingwood: 136, Sydney: 117 – (Collingwood by 19 points)
• Highest Score Against: Collingwood: 104, Sydney: 96 – (Collingwood by 8 points)
• Biggest Win: Collingwood: 91, Sydney: 65 – (Collingwood by 26 points)
• Biggest Loss: Collingwood: 52, Sydney: 20 – (Sydney more resilient by 32 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Collingwood: 181, Sydney: 172 – (Collingwood by 9 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Collingwood: 109, Sydney: 133 – (Collingwood by 24 points)
• Goal Accuracy For %: Collingwood: 47.4%, Sydney: 59.5% – (Sydney by 12.1%)
• Goal Accuracy Against %: Collingwood: 50.7%, Sydney: 55.8% – (Collingwood by 5.1%)
• Current Streak: Collingwood: W3, Sydney: W2 – (Collingwood momentum)
• Current Form: Collingwood: LWWW, Sydney: LLWW – (Collingwood edge)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Collingwood: 0.0%, Sydney: 50.0% – (Collingwood by 50%)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Collingwood: 100.0%, Sydney: 50.0% – (Collingwood by 50%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Collingwood: 66.7%, Sydney: 50.0% – (Collingwood by 16.7%)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Sydney won by 3 points (89-86) on 9th August 2024
• Previous Encounter: Sydney won by 33 points (102-69) on 15th March 2024