Knights vs Roosters Prediction

Game 3 of Round 15 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on June 14 features the Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters at McDonald Jones Stadium on Saturday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Channel 9, & 9NOW. 🏉🔥

Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles Predictions

Saturday, June 14, 2025

7:50pm @ McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Final Score Prediction

Knights

19 : 23

Sea Eagles

This one’s shaping up as a proper contest at McDonald Jones Stadium. The Knights get the home advantage, but Manly brings superior firepower and consistency.

Expect a tight affair that could go either way, but we’re leaning toward the visitors in a low-scoring grind.

Win Percentages

Knights
44.96%

Sea Eagles
55.04%

Market Reality Check

Sometimes the bookies get it spot on, and this looks like one of those times.

The market has the Knights at $2.43 and Manly at $1.55 – and our model suggests these odds are pretty much bang on target.

Knights

Sea Eagles

The Numbers Game

Our model gives the Knights a 45% chance while the bookies have them at 39% – that’s pretty close. Similarly, we see Manly at 55% while the market implies 61%. The gap isn’t big enough to scream value either way, which means we’re looking at a genuinely competitive matchup.

What Favors Manly

The Sea Eagles bring superior attacking stats, averaging over 11 more points per game. Their power ranking sits 6 spots higher, and they’ve been more consistent against quality opposition. When they’re on, they’re very hard to stop.

Newcastle’s Home Hope

The Knights’ best asset might be their defensive resolve – they’re actually conceding slightly fewer points per game than Manly. At home, that defensive foundation could keep them in the fight, especially in what looks like being a low-scoring battle.

Head-to-Head Snapshot

The key numbers that matter:

Attack: Sea Eagles averaging 11+ more points per game
Defence: Knights slightly better, conceding 1.5 fewer points
Consistency: Manly winning 17% more games this season
Form: Sea Eagles averaging 7-point bigger winning margins
Opposition Quality: Manly has faced tougher teams

Game Style Prediction: Balanced, moderate scoring. Both teams will focus on structure and territory – expect a battle of wills rather than a free-flowing affair.

Expected Total: 36.6 points – well below average, suggesting a grind

Our Betting Strategy

Best Bet: Sea Eagles -5.5

Sea Eagles -5.5 @ $1.90

Our predicted 4-point margin gives this bet decent coverage. Manly’s superior attack should be enough to cover a small line, especially if they get an early lead and force Newcastle to chase.

Safe Option: Sea Eagles H2H

Sea Eagles @ $1.55

No great value here, but Manly should get the job done. Perfect for multi-bet builders who want a reliable foundation.

Value Play: Knights H2H

Knights @ $2.43

If you believe home advantage and defensive grit can upset the form guide, the Knights offer decent odds. This is more of a gut play than a data-driven bet.

The Under Case

With our expected total at just 36.6 points, this looks like perfect “under” territory. Both teams favor structure over flair, and the Knights at home will likely try to slow the game down and keep it tight.

If there’s an under/over market available, the under could be the smartest play of the night.

The Bottom Line

This is one of those games where the market has done its homework. There’s no glaring value in either direction, which usually means we’re in for a competitive contest decided by small margins.

The Sea Eagles should win – they’re the better team with more attacking weapons. But Newcastle at home, in a low-scoring grind, won’t go down without a fight.

Our pick is Manly to edge it, but don’t be surprised if this one goes right to the wire.

Remember to gamble responsibly.