North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers Predictions
Game 6 of Round 10 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on May 10 features the Cowboys vs Panthers at Queensland Country Bank Stadium on Saturday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, May 10, 2025
7:35 pm @ Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Final Score Prediction


Win Percentages
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the North Queensland Cowboys set at $2.25, and $1.64 for the Penrith Panthers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
The bookies are giving the edge to the Panthers here, with a 59.28% implied chance of winning. But according to our analysis, that might be a touch too generous. We’ve got the Cowboys ahead at 53.64%, making this a prime value spot for North Queensland at $2.25.
This one’s closer than the odds suggest, in fact, our numbers tip the Cowboys to win it 24-22. It’s a classic case of market perception not quite matching on-field performance.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Here’s how the two teams compare based on the latest performance metrics:
- Average Points For: Cowboys by 0.2
- Average Points Against: Panthers by 2
- Power Rank: Cowboys by 2 spots
- Average Winning Margin: Panthers by 6
- Adjusted Points For: Cowboys by 2
- Adjusted Points Against: Panthers by 1
- True Power Score (Weighted): Cowboys by 0.4
- Win Percentage: Cowboys by 17%
- Strength of Schedule: Cowboys faced tougher opposition (9% higher opponent win rate)
- Total Power Rank Score: Cowboys 7.50 vs Panthers 8.00
Over/Under Tempo: 43.3 – looks like a competitive, low-tempo grind on the cards.
Game Style Prediction: Grinder. Two well-matched sides likely to slug it out for the full 80 minutes.
What to do?
On paper, this is tight! But the Cowboys are doing just enough to tip the scales. They’re ahead in win rate, have a slightly better power score, and they’ve been up against tougher opposition week to week. Meanwhile, the Panthers’ numbers are strong but not dominant.
With the market pricing the Panthers as clear favourites, that opens the door for a value play on the Cowboys. At $2.25 and a modelled win probability of 53.64%, they’re offering up one of the strongest betting edges of the round.
I’m not entirely sure what has happened to the Panthers this year to have such a significant fall from grace, surprisingly the bookies still have them floating around the $11.00 mark to take the premiership all while sitting at third from the bottom of the ladder!
Both prediction and tempo are set below the anticipated 47.5 points by the bookies, so betting on the UNDER is a solid bet.
Cowboys have a slight upper hand here but the Panthers have a golden opportunity to rise from the ashes and begin clawing their way back to the top.
Unibet is paying $13.36 for the Panthers -3.5, UNDER 48.5, Cowboys 1-12 winning margin multi.
Suggested Betting Tip:
UNDER 48.5 @ $1.90 with Unibet
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H-2-H Bet:
Cowboys @ $2.25 with Unibet
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Line Bet:
Panthers -3.5 @ $1.85 with Unibet
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Winning Margin Bet:
Cowboys 1-12 @ $3.80 with Unibet
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Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Cowboys by 0.2
- Average Points Against Per Match: Panthers by 2
- Power Rank: Cowboys by 2
- Average Winning Margin: Panthers by 6
- Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Cowboys by 2
- Win Percentage: Cowboys by 17%
- Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Even
- Average Opponent Win Percentage: Cowboys by 9%
- Average Opponent Points For: Even
- Highest Score For: Cowboys by 10
- Highest Score Against: Panthers by 4
- Highest Total Match Score: Panthers by 2
- Lowest Total Match Score: Panthers by 4
- Adjusted Points For: Cowboys by 2
- Adjusted Points Against: Panthers by 1
- True Power Score (Weighted): Cowboys by 0.4
- Over/Under Tempo: 50.9
- Game Style Prediction: Grinder
- Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Cowboys: 11, Panthers: 11 – (Even)
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Cowboys: 7.50, Panthers: 8.00 – (Cowboys by 0.5)
Check out all this weeks NRL Multi tips on our Multi Bets Page.
NRL Draw
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