Dragons vs Knights Prediction

Game 1 of Round 13 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on May 30 features the Dragons vs Knights at Jubilee Stadium on Friday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Channel 9, & 9NOW. 🏉🔥

St. George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights Predictions

Friday, May 30, 2025

8:00 pm @ Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Dragons

21 : 15

Knights

Win Percentages

Dragons 53.00%

Knights 47.00%

Dragons

Knights

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the St. George Illawarra Dragons set at $1.53, and $2.45 for the Newcastle Knights, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Dragons 61.56%
Knights 38.44%

The Betting Edge

The bookies are pretty keen on the Dragons here, with odds of $1.53 giving them a 61.56% implied chance of getting the win. But our prediction has them at just a 53.00% chance, still favourites, but not by as much as the market suggests.

The Knights, on the other hand, are out at $2.45, which implies only a 38.44% chance of winning. Our numbers are a bit more generous, giving Newcastle a 47.00% shot, noticeably higher than what the odds suggest.

That gap means there’s some decent value in backing the Knights. If our model’s accurate, their true odds should be more like $2.13, so the $2.45 on offer looks pretty juicy.

In what’s shaping up to be a tighter game than the odds reflect, the Knights could be the value play here. The bookies might be underestimating them, and that $2.45 could be worth a look.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Here’s how the two teams compare based on the latest performance metrics:

Dragons vs Knights Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Dragons by 8.9
Average Points Against Per Match: Knights by 5
Power Rank: Even
Average Winning Margin: Knights by 7
SoS Adjusted Points For: Dragons by 10
Win Percentage: Dragons by 4%
Average Opponent Rank: Dragons by 4
Average Opponent Win %: Dragons by 11%
Average Opponent Points For: Knights by 5
Highest Score For: Dragons by 8
Highest Score Against: Knights by 12
Highest Total Match Score: Dragons by 16
Lowest Total Match Score: Knights by 4
Adjusted Points For: Dragons by 10
Adjusted Points Against: Knights by 9
True Power Score (Weighted): Dragons by 1.2
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 37.6
Game Style Prediction: Grinder
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Dragons: 7, Knights: 11 – (Dragons by 4)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Dragons: 9.17, Knights: 10.00 – (Dragons by 0.83)

Over/Under Tempo: Very low tempo expected. A heavy, grind likely with limited attacking flair and plenty of stoppages.

Game Style Prediction: Grinder. A war of attrition between two defensive minded sides, expect a low-scoring, territorial battle defined by pressure acts and discipline.