Cowboys vs Sea Eagles Prediction

Game 4 of Round 11 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on May 17 features the Cowboys vs Sea Eagles at Queensland Country Bank Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles Predictions

Saturday, May 17, 2025

5:30 pm @ Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Final Score Prediction

Cowboys

18 : 24

Sea Eagles

Win Percentages

Cowboys 47.99%

Sea Eagles 52.01%

Cowboys

Sea Eagles

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the North Queensland Cowboys set at $1.68, and $2.14 for the Manly Sea Eagles, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Cowboys 56.02%
Sea Eagles 43.98%

The Betting Edge

Unibet has the North Queensland Cowboys favoured at $1.68, giving them a 56.02% implied chance of coming out on top. Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles are sitting at $2.14, with the market only giving them a 43.98% shot.
But when we punch in our numbers? It flips the other way, we’ve got Manly edging it with a 52.01% win probability, while the Cowboys sit just behind on 47.99%. That’s a clear indicator the market might be overrating the Cowboys a touch here.

It’s not a huge gap, but in punting terms, that’s a sneaky bit of value on the Sea Eagles at $2.14. If our model’s right, they’re being underplayed by the bookies, and that’s exactly the kind of mismatch we like to spot.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Here’s how the two teams compare based on the latest performance metrics:

Cowboys vs Sea Eagles Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Sea Eagles by 0.2 points
Average Points Against Per Match: Sea Eagles by 4 points
Power Rank: Sea Eagles by 4
Average Winning Margin: Sea Eagles by 9 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Cowboys by 2 points
Win %: Even
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Sea Eagles by 4 ranks
Average Opponent Win %: Sea Eagles by 1%
Average Opponent Points For: Even
Highest Score For: Cowboys by 8 points
Highest Score Against: Cowboys by 6 points
Highest Total Match Score: Sea Eagles by 4 points
Lowest Total Match Score: Sea Eagles by 4 points
Adjusted Points For: Cowboys by 2 points
Adjusted Points Against: Sea Eagles by 3 points
True Power Score (Weighted): Sea Eagles by 3
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 52
Game Style Prediction: Grinder
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Cowboys: 7.17, Sea Eagles: 7.17 – (Even)

Over/Under Tempo: Decent pace expected, but still likely to stay in the grinder territory.

Game Style Prediction: Grinder. Tough contest ahead with both sides needing to scrap for every metre.

What to do?

The Cowboys may be favourites with the bookies, but our numbers say it’s Manly who’ve got the slight edge. They’ve been more efficient blocking, have the better power rating, and come up better when you adjust for opposition quality.

At $2.14, the Sea Eagles are offering good value in what should be a very even contest. If you’re looking for an edge, Manly appears to be the smart play here.

Take the Sea Eagles at 1-12 for the best value bet.

Looking at multis go the Sea Eagles 1-12, Sea Eagles +2.5, and the UNDER 50.5 for a handy little $13.54 with Unibet.