Carlton vs Collingwood Prediction
Carlton vs Collingwood: Friday Night Blockbuster at the MCG Home…
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Prediction
Game 6 of Round 10 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 17 sees Western Bulldogs vs Essendon at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers Predictions
Saturday, May 17, 2026
7:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Western Bulldogs85 : 77
Essendon 
Win Percentages
Western Bulldogs 59.59%
Essendon 40.41%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Western Bulldogs set at $1.26, and $3.80 for the Essendon Bombers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
Unibet’s made the Western Bulldogs heavy favourites here at $1.26, giving them a massive 75.11% implied win chance. Essendon, on the other hand, are way out at $3.80, which suggests just a 24.89% chance of causing an upset.
Now, our model definitely favours the Dogs, but not by that much. We’ve got the Bulldogs at 59.59% and Essendon at 40.41%. That’s a big difference compared to what the market’s saying, and yep, that means the Bombers are being seriously underrated.
The Bulldogs are the better team, no doubt. But at $3.80, Essendon are offering huge value for anyone looking to back an underdog with a real puncher’s chance.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Western Bulldogs by 22.2 points
- Average Points Against Per Match: Western Bulldogs by 4 points
- Power Rank: Western Bulldogs by 5
- Average Winning Margin: Western Bulldogs by 30.6 points
- Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Western Bulldogs by 19 points
- Win %: Essendon by 7%
- Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Western Bulldogs by 4 ranks
- Average Opponent Win %: Essendon by 3%
- Average Opponent Points For: Essendon by 11 points
- Highest Score For: Western Bulldogs by 31 points
- Highest Score Against: Western Bulldogs by 43 points
- Highest Total Match Score: Essendon by 46 points
- Lowest Total Match Score: Essendon by 19 points
- Adjusted Points For: Western Bulldogs by 19 points
- Adjusted Points Against: Essendon by 7 points
- True Power Score (Weighted): Western Bulldogs by 9.4
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 178.6
- Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Western Bulldogs: 5.83, Essendon: 7.00 – (Western Bulldogs by 1.17)
Over/Under Tempo: Expect a high-scoring, fast-paced shootout.
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout. Bulldogs have the firepower to run away with it if they control early.
What to do?
The Bulldogs are the better side, and they’re playing more dominant footy, but at $1.26, there’s no real value in backing them straight up. The market’s priced them like it’s a foregone conclusion, but our model doesn’t see it that way.
Essendon at $3.80 is where the edge lies. The Bombers are no walkover, and they’ve actually got a higher win rate this season. If they can contain the Dogs’ explosive ball movement and take their chances up forward, there’s real upset potential here.
For punters chasing value: it’s Bombers or nothing. Best bet is to take the Bombers +23.5.
As for multis, take the Essendon +23.5, UNDER 175.5, Western Bulldogs 1-39 for $5.75 with Unibet.
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Betting Tips
Suggested Betting Tip:
Essendon +23.5 @ $1.90 with Unibet
BET NOW
H-2-H Bet:
Western Bulldogs @ $1.26 with Unibet
BET NOW
Winning Margin Bet:
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.10 with Unibet
BET NOW
OVER/UNDER Bet:
UNDER 175.5 @ $1.88 with Unibet
BET NOW
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Multi Tip:
Essendon +23.5
UNDER 175.5
Western Bulldogs 1-39
@ $5.75 with Unibet
BET NOW
Related:
AFL Fixture
Check the AFL fixture for upcoming AFL matches this season.
AFL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our AFL injury list.
Other Betting Tips
We don’t just do AFL Tips; our team of experts Also specialise in NRL betting and horse racing tips.
All AFL Tips
