Carlton vs Collingwood Prediction

Carlton vs Collingwood: Friday Night Blockbuster at the MCG

Home • $4.35

Away • $1.20

Friday Night • MCG • Cold, no wind

Looking at this blockbuster Round 17 Friday night clash between Carlton and Collingwood at the MCG, there’s one question burning through the betting markets: Can the Blues finally break their post-half-time curse?

After being outscored by 119 points across the main breaks in their last three games, Carlton faces the daunting task of stopping a Collingwood side that’s won five straight and sits comfortably atop the ladder.

The Pies dominated when these teams last met in Round 4, turning a half-time deficit into a 17-point win behind Lachie Schultz’s Richard Pratt Medal performance.

Now with Carlton fresh off a 50-point hiding from Port Adelaide where they managed just 1.6 to half-time, and Collingwood rolling after yet another second-half demolition job (this time against West Coast), the market’s got this as a Magpies benefit night – and the data backs it up.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching the numbers on this one, the value screams out in a couple of key markets.

Carlton’s recent scoring woes combined with a cold Friday night forecast has me targeting the unders, while their season-long defensive numbers suggest they’ll keep this closer than the market expects.

Here’s where the smart money’s heading:

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

Total Points Under 161.5

$1.88

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VALUE BET

Carlton +26.5

$1.88

BET NOW

SMART HEDGE

Collingwood Head-to-Head

$1.20

BET NOW

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

I’ve been tracking these sides all season, and while the market’s got Collingwood as heavy favourites, my model suggests this could be tighter than the bookies think.

Based on season averages adjusted for recent form and those tricky MCG conditions, here’s what the data’s telling us:

Our Data Says: Carlton 67, Collingwood 83 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Carlton a 44.7% win chance, Collingwood 55.3%

Bookmakers have Carlton at $4.35 (23% implied) vs Collingwood at $1.20 (83% implied)

The Market Edge: Carlton offers significant line value – our 44.7% chance suggests a 16-point margin, yet they’re getting 26.5 points

Our Prediction

CAR 67 | COL 83

Win Probability

CAR 44.7% | COL 55.3%

Market Edge

21.7%

on CAR

FORM LINE

Look, I know Carlton’s recent form reads like a horror story – they’ve dropped three of their last five, including that embarrassing display against Port where they kicked just eight goals for the entire match.

But here’s the thing: they’ve actually been competitive in patches, leading at half-time in several games before their now-infamous third-quarter fadeouts.

Meanwhile, Collingwood’s won five straight but check who they’ve played – only one of those wins came against a current top-eight side.

Carlton’s last five show some concerning trends with losses to Port Adelaide (50 points), North Melbourne (11 points) and GWS (28 points), though they did manage wins over West Coast and Essendon.

The Magpies have been more consistent, knocking off West Coast, St Kilda, Melbourne twice, and Hawthorn – but those winning margins have been inflated by massive second-half performances.

Carlton Blues

LLLWW

Loss to Port Adelaide by 50 points
Loss to North Melbourne by 11 points
Loss to GWS by 28 points
Win over West Coast
Win over Essendon

Collingwood Magpies

WWWWW

Win over West Coast
Win over St Kilda
Win over Melbourne
Win over Melbourne (second meeting)
Win over Hawthorn

KEY STATS

After digging through the season numbers, the statistical gap between these sides isn’t as dramatic as the odds suggest.

Yes, Collingwood averages 13.5 goals per game to Carlton’s 11.3, but the Blues actually win the contested possession count (140.7 to 126.1) and clearances (39.4 to 36.7).

Where Carlton falls down is disposal efficiency – sitting at just 70.1% compared to Collingwood’s league-leading 72.6%.

The inside 50 count tells an interesting story too.

Carlton generates more forward entries (55.3 per game) than Collingwood (52.3), but the Pies’ superior finishing means they convert at a much higher rate.

In wet conditions with patchy rain forecast, that efficiency gap might narrow considerably – and that’s why the under looks so appealing at current odds.

GOALS PER GAME

COL
13.5

CAR
11.3

CONTESTED POSSESSION

CAR
140.7

COL
126.1

CLEARANCES

CAR
39.4

COL
36.7

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY (%)

COL
72.6

CAR
70.1

INSIDE 50s

CAR
55.3

COL
52.3

SELECTION WATCH

Team selections yet to be announced – we’ll update our analysis once the lineups drop.

THE FINAL WORD

This shapes as a classic Friday night arm-wrestle in typical July conditions at the MCG.

While Collingwood deserves favouritism based on ladder position and recent results, Carlton’s underlying numbers suggest they’re better than their recent scorelines indicate.

The 26.5-point line feels generous given the conditions and Carlton’s ability to win contested ball, even if their third-quarter demons continue to haunt them.

My main play remains the under 161.5 total points at $1.88 – with the forecast and both teams’ recent defensive improvements, this has all the makings of a low-scoring grind.

Carlton with the points offers genuine value for those looking for a bigger return, but remember: betting against the ladder leaders on Friday night takes some stones.

LOCK IT IN: Total Points Under 161.5 @ $1.88

Wet conditions and defensive trends point to the under.

BET NOW