St Kilda vs Fremantle Prediction

The Betting Edge

The bookies have Fremantle as the favourites with a 56.48% implied chance, but our numbers show them just a touch lower at 53.79%. The Saints are slightly underrated, sitting at 46.21% in our model compared to the bookies’ 43.52%.

At the current odds of $2.18 for St Kilda, there’s a little bit of value if you’re feeling like backing the underdog. It’s not a huge edge, but it’s definitely there if you’re keen for a cheeky play!

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

• Predicted Final Score: St Kilda 82 – 92 Fremantle
• Average Points For: St Kilda 86.43, Fremantle 89.57 (Fremantle by 3.14 points)
• Average Points Against: St Kilda 100.86, Fremantle 83.57 (Fremantle way ahead by 17.29 points)
• Win Percentage: St Kilda 42.86%, Fremantle 57.14% (Fremantle by 14.28%)
• Adjusted Points For: St Kilda 91.56, Fremantle 86.47 (Saints by 5.09 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: St Kilda 100.75, Fremantle 86.38 (Fremantle by 14.37 points)
• Over/Under Tempo: 182.6 (Expect a free-flowing, high-tempo game)
• Game Style Prediction: Balanced Matchup

What to do?

Fremantle sit in 10th spot on the power rankings, with the Saints just a few spots back in 13th, a decent little edge to the Dockers, but not massive.

Looking at the True Power Score, Fremantle again come out ahead (8.40 vs 12.60), suggesting they’ve been more consistent and efficient across the season so far.

Interestingly, St Kilda have faced slightly tougher opposition (average opponent rank 5.54 vs 8.50) and scored more adjusted points (91.56 vs 86.47), but their leaky backline could be a big problem here against a Dockers side that can punish mistakes.

When you add it all up, Fremantle have the stronger all-round game, especially in the backline, but the Saints have enough attacking upside to keep it close. If you’re after a bit of value, the Saints at $2.18 aren’t a bad underdog bet, but Fremantle rightly go in as slight favourites in what should be a tight game!

Best value is in the Unibet Winning Margin for Fremantle 1-39 at $2.20 in what should be a close one, no blowouts this week.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: St Kilda: 86.43, Fremantle: 89.57 – (Fremantle by 3.14 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: St Kilda: 100.86, Fremantle: 83.57 – (Fremantle by 17.29 points)
• Power Rank: St Kilda: 13, Fremantle: 10 – (Fremantle by 3)
• Average Winning Margin: St Kilda: 35.33, Fremantle: 33.25 – (St Kilda by 2.08 points)
• SoS Adjusted Points For: St Kilda: 91.56, Fremantle: 86.47 – (St Kilda by 5.09 points)
• Win Percentage: St Kilda: 42.86%, Fremantle: 57.14% – (Fremantle by 14.28%)
• Average Opponent Rank: St Kilda: 5.54, Fremantle: 8.50 – (St Kilda by 2.96 ranks)
• Average Opponent Win %: St Kilda: 50.00%, Fremantle: 52.38% – (Fremantle by 2.38%)
• Average Opponent Points For: St Kilda: 86.20, Fremantle: 91.93 – (St Kilda by 5.73 points)
• Highest Score For: St Kilda: 135.00, Fremantle: 108.00 – (St Kilda by 27 points)
• Highest Score Against: St Kilda: 135.00, Fremantle: 147.00 – (St Kilda by 12 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: St Kilda: 207.00, Fremantle: 216.00 – (Fremantle by 9 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: St Kilda: 161.00, Fremantle: 133.00 – (Fremantle by 28 points)
• Adjusted Points For: St Kilda: 91.56, Fremantle: 86.47 – (St Kilda by 5.09 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: St Kilda: 100.75, Fremantle: 86.38 – (Fremantle by 14.37 points)
• True Power Score (Weighted): St Kilda: 12.60, Fremantle: 8.40 – (Fremantle by 4.2 points)
• OVER/UNDER Tempo: 182.6
• Game Style Prediction: Balanced Matchup