Game 9 of Round 10 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 18 sees West Coast vs St Kilda at GMHBA Stadium on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the West Coast Eagles set at $3.25, and $1.34 for the St Kilda Saints, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Eagles
29.21%
Saints
70.79%
The Betting Edge
Unibet’s got St Kilda as the heavy favourite at $1.34, with an implied win probability of 70.79%. West Coast are way out at $3.25, suggesting only a 29.21% chance of pulling off the upset.
Our model still favours the Saints, but not quite that strongly, we’ve got St Kilda winning 64.07% of the time, with the Eagles sitting at 35.93%. So while St Kilda are the rightful frontrunners, the market’s being a little too bullish, leaving a small pocket of value on West Coast.
The Saints are ahead across nearly every key stat, but if you’re value hunting, there’s a case to be made for the Eagles at those odds, especially if they can stay competitive early.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
West Coast vs St Kilda Head-to-Head Stats
Average Points For Per Match: St Kilda by 18.2 points
Average Points Against Per Match: St Kilda by 18 points
Power Rank: St Kilda by 8
Average Winning Margin: St Kilda by 41.75 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: St Kilda by 11 points
Win %: St Kilda by 44%
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: St Kilda by 9 ranks
Average Opponent Win %: West Coast by 21%
Average Opponent Points For: West Coast by 9 points
Highest Score For: St Kilda by 56 points
Highest Score Against: St Kilda by 1 point
Highest Total Match Score: St Kilda by 9 points
Lowest Total Match Score: St Kilda by 25 points
Adjusted Points For: St Kilda by 11 points
Adjusted Points Against: St Kilda by 1 point
True Power Score (Weighted): St Kilda by 7.4
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 175.2
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): West Coast: 17.50, St Kilda: 10.50 – (St Kilda by 7.00)
Over/Under Tempo: A faster-paced game, but scoring may still be limited.
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring. Saints should control the game tempo, especially in the back half.
What to do?
St Kilda are in a great spot to take the win, they’re stronger in both the front and backline, and putting up better numbers across the board. But with the market giving them a huge 70%+ chance, there’s not a lot of meat left on that bone at $1.34.
If you’re after a low-risk play, the Saints are solid. But if you’re chasing value, West Coast might just be worth a cheeky flyer. Our model gives them closer to a 36% shot, which is definitely more than the odds suggest. Risky, yes, but possibly worth a nibble.
Best bet is to take the West Coast +18.5 with this one.
As for multis, take the West Coast +18.5, UNDER 168.5, St Kilda 1-39 for $6.75 with Unibet.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy.
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