AFL Betting Tips Round 7
Nine games across four days – and the biggest disagreement…
St Kilda vs Gold Coast Prediction
Game 9 of Round 11 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 25 sees St Kilda vs Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast SUNS Predictions
Sunday, May 25, 2026
4:40 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
86 : 92
Win Percentages
Saints 40.84%
SUNS 59.16%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the St Kilda Saints set at $2.60, and $1.47 for the Gold Coast SUNS, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
The bookies are backing Gold Coast in a big way for this one, but the numbers suggest the Saints are a bit more in it than the odds are letting on.
Unibet have Gold Coast at $1.47, with an implied probability of 63.88%. St Kilda are out at $2.60, which gives them just a 36.12% chance according to the market. But based on our analysis, the Saints are actually sitting at 40.84%, while the SUNS are at 59.16%.
That gap might not seem huge, but it’s enough to create a value opportunity. If the Saints really do have around a 41% chance, their true odds should be closer to $2.45. The current offer of $2.60 gives punters a bit of extra juice.
The takeaway? St Kilda are being slightly undervalued here. While Gold Coast are rightly favourites, the Saints are more of a threat than the odds suggest, and that makes $2.60 a value bet worth a look.
There’s a bit of value in backing the Saints, with our numbers giving them a better shot than the market currently does.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
St Kilda vs Gold Coast Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Gold Coast by 16.7
- Average Points Against Per Match: Gold Coast by 14
- Power Rank: Gold Coast by 7
- Average Winning Margin: St Kilda by 9.18
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Gold Coast by 7
- Win Percentage: Gold Coast by 38%
- Average Opponent Rank: Gold Coast by 3
- Average Opponent Win %: St Kilda by 23%
- Average Opponent Points For: St Kilda by 14
- Highest Score For: Gold Coast by 1
- Highest Score Against: Gold Coast by 39
- Highest Total Match Score: St Kilda by 3
- Lowest Total Match Score: Gold Coast by 12
- Adjusted Points For: Gold Coast by 7
- Adjusted Points Against: Gold Coast by 3
- True Power Score (Weighted): Gold Coast by 6.8
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 182.1
- Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
- Average Opposition Ladder Rank: St Kilda: 7, Gold Coast: 5 – (Gold Coast by 2)
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): St Kilda: 7.83, Gold Coast: 6.67 – (Gold Coast by 1.16)
Over/Under Tempo: High tempo expected; game should be fast-moving, though overall scoring may still be limited.
Game Style Prediction: Likely blowout. One team likely to control the match with limited resistance and low final scores.
What to do?
Best bet is to take the Saints +12.5 this game.
As for multis, take the St Kilda +12.5, OVER 171.5, Gold Coast 1-39 for $11.50 with Unibet as shown below.
St Kilda vs Gold Coast Betting Tips
Related:
AFL Fixture
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AFL Injury List
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