St Kilda vs Carlton Prediction

The Betting Edge

The bookies have Carlton firmly in the driver’s seat, giving them a 58.67% chance of winning, while pricing the Saints at just 41.33%. But based on our deeper numbers, this one’s pretty much a toss-up, we’ve got St Kilda at 50.88% and Carlton at 49.12%.

That flips the market’s script and puts some serious value on the Saints at $2.32. If you’re backing based on where the edge lies, St Kilda are offering a lot more bang for your buck than the odds suggest.

BET ST KILDA @ $2.32 (vs Carlton)

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

• Average Points For: St Kilda by 3.9
• Average Points Against: Carlton by 16
• Power Rank: Carlton by 3 spots
• Average Winning Margin: Carlton by 15.25
• Adjusted Points For: St Kilda by 10
• Adjusted Points Against: Carlton by 18
• True Power Score (Weighted): Carlton by 2
• Win Percentage: St Kilda by 13%
• Strength of Schedule: Saints by 4 spots (tougher opposition on average)
• Total Power Rank Score: Carlton 7.17 vs St Kilda 8.67

Over/Under Tempo: 170.9 – so expect a high-scoring, end-to-end style contest.

Game Style Prediction: Balanced Matchup. Both sides have strengths in different areas and could cancel each other out in patches.

What to do?

It’s a tale of two teams doing the job in different ways. Carlton have the better backline profile and power ranking, while the Saints are generating more scoring pressure and have dealt with tougher opposition overall.

With the bookies heavily favouring the Blues but our numbers seeing this almost dead even, St Kilda at $2.32 shapes up as one of the best value plays of the round. They might not be the favourites, but they’ve got every chance of getting it done, and at those odds, it’s a punt worth taking.

Best option here is to bump some extra points on the underdog and give them a +7.5 handicap.

If you’re looking for a multi, go the Saints +7.5, UNDER 167.5, Carlton 1-39 for $16.00 at Unibet.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: St Kilda by 3.9
• Average Points Against Per Match: Carlton by 16
• Power Rank: Carlton by 3
• Average Winning Margin: Carlton by 15.25
• Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: St Kilda by 10
• Win Percentage: St Kilda by 13%
• Average Opponent Ladder Rank: St Kilda by 4
• Average Opponent Win Percentage: Carlton by 9%
• Average Opponent Points For: St Kilda by 1
• Highest Score For: Carlton by 18
• Highest Score Against: Carlton by 25
• Highest Total Match Score: Carlton by 17
• Lowest Total Match Score: Carlton by 18
• Adjusted Points For: St Kilda by 10
• Adjusted Points Against: Carlton by 18
• True Power Score (Weighted): Carlton by 2
• Over/Under Tempo: 170.9
• Game Style Prediction: Balanced Matchup
• Average Opposition Ladder Rank: St Kilda: 6, Carlton: 10 – (St Kilda by 4)
• Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): St Kilda: 8.67, Carlton: 7.17 – (Carlton by 1.5)