Richmond vs West Coast Prediction

The Betting Edge

The bookies have Richmond as solid favourites, giving them a 61.85% implied chance of taking this one out. But our model suggests it’s a bit closer than that, with Richmond at 58.20% and West Coast at 41.80%. That small gap creates a little window of value on the Eagles at $2.55, especially in what looks like a genuine toss-up by the numbers.

With our predicted final score landing in a 65-65 draw, this one could easily go either way. The Tigers are rightly favourites, but it’s far from a lock.

BET EAGLES @ $2.55 (vs Richmond)

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

• Average Points For: Richmond by 1.1
• Average Points Against: Richmond by 8.4
• Power Rank: Richmond by 1 spot
• Average Winning Margin: Richmond by 12.00
• Adjusted Points For: West Coast by 4
• Adjusted Points Against: Richmond by 4
• True Power Score (Weighted): Richmond by 1.4
• Win Percentage: Richmond by 25%
• Strength of Schedule: Richmond faced tougher opposition (ladder rank by 7)
• Total Power Rank Score: Even. Both sides at 13.83

Over/Under Tempo: 167.4 – a bit above average, but expect plenty of contested footy and pressure throughout.

Game Style Prediction: Grinder. This one should be tight and physical, with no clear dominance either way.

What to do?

Richmond have the edge when it comes to backline, win rate, and quality of opponents faced, but West Coast are holding their own across a number of important stats, particularly when it comes to adjusted scoring and overall competitiveness.

With both teams sitting dead even on power rank score, and our model predicting a draw, West Coast at $2.55 looks like the better value. Richmond are still the safer play, especially for multis, but if you’re taking a swing for value, the Eagles (or even a small draw bet) could be a decent shout.

Best bet is to take West Coast for the +11.5 line, neither team excels at scoring, and considering it is expected to be such a low scoring game an 11 point difference is significant.

for the multi go for West Coast +11.5, Richmond 1-39, and the UNDER 171.5 for $10.50 with Unibet.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Richmond by 1.1
• Average Points Against Per Match: Richmond by 8.4
• Power Rank: Richmond by 1
• Average Winning Margin: Richmond by 12.00
• Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: West Coast by 4
• Win Percentage: Richmond by 25%
• Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Richmond by 6
• Average Opponent Win Percentage: West Coast by 16%
• Average Opponent Points For: West Coast by 3
• Highest Score For: Richmond by 14
• Highest Score Against: West Coast by 4
• Highest Total Match Score: Richmond by 10
• Lowest Total Match Score: Richmond by 6
• Adjusted Points For: West Coast by 4
• Adjusted Points Against: Richmond by 4
• True Power Score (Weighted): Richmond by 1.4
• Over/Under Tempo: 167.4
• Game Style Prediction: Grinder
• Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Richmond: 8, West Coast: 15 – (Richmond by 7)
• Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Richmond: 13.83, West Coast: 13.83 – (Even)