Game 7 of Round 10 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 18 sees Richmond vs North Melbourne at the MCG on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Predictions
Sunday, May 18, 2026
1:10 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Richmond
69 : 79
North Melbourne
Win Percentages
Richmond46.79%
North Melbourne53.21%
Richmond
North
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Richmond Tigers set at $2.32, and $1.61 for the North Melbourne Kangaroos, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Tigers
40.97%
Kangaroos
59.03%
The Betting Edge
Unibet has North Melbourne as the clear favourite at $1.61, which gives them an implied win probability of 59.03%. Richmond’s out at $2.32, meaning the market reckons they’ve only got a 40.97% shot.
But our model’s trimmed that gap quite a bit, we’ve got North at 53.21% and Richmond at 46.79%. So while North are still the more likely winner, the bookies have probably gone a bit overboard. That gives Richmond the edge when it comes to value.
Backing the Tigers here might feel bold, but there’s a little underdog upside if they can bring the pressure and keep things close in a grinding contest.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Richmond vs North Melbourne Head-to-Head Stats
Average Points For Per Match: North Melbourne by 13.9 points
Average Points Against Per Match: Richmond by 0.1 points
Power Rank: North Melbourne by 2
Average Winning Margin: North Melbourne by 50.33 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: North Melbourne by 13 points
Win %: Richmond by 22%
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: North Melbourne by 1 rank
Average Opponent Win %: North Melbourne by 9%
Average Opponent Points For: Richmond by 7 points
Highest Score For: North Melbourne by 35 points
Highest Score Against: Richmond by 13 points
Highest Total Match Score: North Melbourne by 16 points
Lowest Total Match Score: North Melbourne by 19 points
Adjusted Points For: North Melbourne by 13 points
Adjusted Points Against: Richmond by 7 points
True Power Score (Weighted): North Melbourne by 2
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 174.4
Game Style Prediction: Grinder
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Richmond: 13.17, North Melbourne: 7.33 – (North Melbourne by 5.84)
Over/Under Tempo: Solid pace expected, though overall intensity may swing depending on early momentum.
Game Style Prediction: Grinder. Expect a physical, tough slog where scoring won’t come easy.
What to do?
North Melbourne definitely deserve to be favourites, but $1.61 doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for value. Our numbers show they’re more like a 53% chance, so the bookies are a little too keen.
Richmond at $2.32, though? That’s a bit more interesting.
Our model sees them as nearly a 47% chance, which means you’re getting overs. If you’re chasing value in a hard-fought, lower-scoring battle, the Tigers are worth a look, especially in what could be a scrap decided by a couple of late plays.
Best bet is to take the UNDER 172.5 with this one.
As for multis, take the Richmond +9.5, UNDER 172.5, North Melbourne 1-39 for $12.50 with Unibet.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy.
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