Port Adelaide vs Adelaide Prediction

The Betting Edge

The bookies are fairly confident in Adelaide for this one, giving the Crows a 58.82% implied chance of winning. But our model bumps that up even further, rating Adelaide at 59.48%. It’s not a massive jump, but it does confirm that the Crows are rightly favoured, and perhaps even a touch underpriced at $1.61.

Port Adelaide are out at $2.30, and while that might tempt a few punters, the numbers just don’t stack up in their favour. This one leans clearly toward the Crows, who are in better form, playing cleaner footy, and stacking up far stronger across the board.

BET CROWS @ $1.61 (vs Port Adelaide)

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

• Average Points For: Adelaide by 21
• Average Points Against: Adelaide by 15
• Power Rank: Adelaide by 12 spots
• Average Winning Margin: Adelaide by 17.85
• Adjusted Points For: Adelaide by 8
• Adjusted Points Against: Adelaide by 1
• True Power Score (Weighted): Adelaide by 10.8
• Win Percentage: Adelaide by 13%
• Strength of Schedule: Crows by 3 spots in ladder difficulty
• Total Power Rank Score: Crows 5.67 vs Power 6.83

Over/Under Tempo: 184.7 – expect a high-scoring shootout with plenty of action end-to-end.

Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout. Adelaide have the tools to control this from the outset if they settle early.

What to do?

This looks like Port Adelaide’s game to lose. The Crows are ahead in basically every stat: more points for, fewer points against, stronger adjusted performance, and a better power score. Add in a tougher schedule and a higher ladder position, and it’s a convincing profile.

At $1.61, the Crows are offering decent value for multis or safe singles, and while it’s not the flashiest return, the probability edge is still in their favour. On the other hand, the Power might look tempting at $2.30, but the numbers suggest you’d be better off not betting against the grain.

If you’re looking for a bet with some confidence behind it, Adelaide are the play.

Best bet here is to take the Adelaide -8.5, it’s better value than the Crows on the nose and considering the crows scoring power it’s difficult to determine whether they will kick above or below the 39-40 margin.

Looking for a multi?

Take the Adelaide -8.5, Adelaide 1-39, UNDER 175.5 for $4.80 at Unibet.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Adelaide by 21
• Average Points Against Per Match: Adelaide by 15
• Power Rank: Adelaide by 12
• Average Winning Margin: Adelaide by 17.85
• Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Adelaide by 8
• Win Percentage: Adelaide by 13%
• Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Adelaide by 3
• Average Opponent Win Percentage: Port Adelaide by 7%
• Average Opponent Points For: Port Adelaide by 12
• Highest Score For: Adelaide by 21
• Highest Score Against: Adelaide by 17
• Highest Total Match Score: Adelaide by 49
• Lowest Total Match Score: Adelaide by 46
• Adjusted Points For: Adelaide by 8
• Adjusted Points Against: Adelaide by 1
• True Power Score (Weighted): Adelaide by 10.8
• Over/Under Tempo: 184.7
• Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout
• Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Port Adelaide: 8, Adelaide: 5 – (Adelaide by 3)
• Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Port Adelaide: 6.83, Adelaide: 5.67 – (Adelaide by 1.16)