Hawthorn vs Richmond Prediction

The Betting Edge

The bookies have Hawthorn winning this in a canter with a 91% implied probability, but our deeper dive says it’s a little closer, with the Hawks winning about 66.92% of the time. Richmond are long shots at $10.50 for a reason, but they might not be quite as hopeless as the odds suggest.

Still, the safest bet here is clearly Hawthorn, especially if you’re rolling them into multis or same game combos.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

• Predicted Final Score: Hawthorn 100 – 57 Richmond
• Average Points For: Hawthorn 93.86, Richmond 69.00 (Hawthorn by 24.86 points)
• Average Points Against: Hawthorn 80.86, Richmond 103.14 (Hawthorn by 22.28 points)
• Win Percentage: Hawthorn 71.43%, Richmond 28.57% (Hawthorn by 42.86%)
• Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn 93.43, Richmond 71.68 (Hawthorn by 21.75 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: Hawthorn 78.36, Richmond 98.62 (Hawthorn by 20.26 points)
• Over/Under Tempo: 171 (Expect a quick tempo but fairly one-sided game)
• Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout

What to do?

The Hawks are ranked 5th in the power rankings, while the Tigers are way down in 17th, a massive 12-spot gap that tells the story all on its own.

Looking at the True Power Score, it’s even clearer: Hawthorn sit at 5.40 compared to Richmond’s 16.60. That’s an 11.2-point gulf, huge by any measure.

Hawthorn have also faced tougher opposition (average opponent rank 4.50 vs Richmond’s 7.83) and still performed better across every major metric, attack, defence, margins, you name it.

Richmond just haven’t been able to hold up in the backline this year, leaking big scores, and that’s likely to cost them dearly against a Hawks side that’s ruthless when they get a sniff.

All in all, everything points to a strong, comfortable Hawthorn win. Richmond would need a miracle to get close based on these numbers!

Best option here is to take the UNDER 178.5, there is no real value in betting directly on Hawthorn, and the line of 48.5 is a little too close to our predicted margin.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Hawthorn: 93.86, Richmond: 69.00 – (Hawthorn by 24.86 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Hawthorn: 80.86, Richmond: 103.14 – (Hawthorn by 22.28 points)
• Power Rank: Hawthorn: 5, Richmond: 17 – (Hawthorn by 12)
• Average Winning Margin: Hawthorn: 25.60, Richmond: 12.00 – (Hawthorn by 13.6 points)
• SoS Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn: 93.43, Richmond: 71.68 – (Hawthorn by 21.75 points)
• Win Percentage: Hawthorn: 71.43%, Richmond: 28.57% – (Hawthorn by 42.86%)
• Average Opponent Rank: Hawthorn: 4.50, Richmond: 7.83 – (Hawthorn by 3.33 ranks)
• Average Opponent Win %: Hawthorn: 53.57%, Richmond: 47.92% – (Hawthorn by 5.65%)
• Average Opponent Points For: Hawthorn: 85.56, Richmond: 81.96 – (Richmond by 3.6 points)
• Highest Score For: Hawthorn: 124.00, Richmond: 90.00 – (Hawthorn by 34 points)
• Highest Score Against: Hawthorn: 121.00, Richmond: 140.00 – (Hawthorn by 19 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Hawthorn: 212.00, Richmond: 208.00 – (Hawthorn by 4 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Hawthorn: 140.00, Richmond: 146.00 – (Hawthorn by 6 points)
• Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn: 93.43, Richmond: 71.68 – (Hawthorn by 21.75 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: Hawthorn: 78.36, Richmond: 98.62 – (Hawthorn by 20.26 points)
• True Power Score (Weighted): Hawthorn: 5.40, Richmond: 16.60 – (Hawthorn by 11.2 points)
• OVER/UNDER Tempo: 171
• Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout