AFL Betting Tips Round 7
Nine games across four days – and the biggest disagreement…
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide Prediction
Game 6 of Round 11 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 24 sees Fremantle vs Port Adelaide at Optus Stadium on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power Predictions
Saturday, May 24, 2026
8:10 pm AEDT @ Optus Stadium, Perth
Final Score Prediction
78 : 70
Win Percentages
Dockers 54.35%
Power 45.65%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Fremantle Dockers set at $1.33, and $3.25 for the Port Adelaide Power, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
This one between Fremantle and Port Adelaide might be tighter than the bookies are letting on.
Right now, Unibet have Fremantle listed at $1.33, which gives them an implied probability of 70.96%. Port Adelaide, on the other hand, are way out at $3.25, with an implied chance of just 29.04%. But according to our analysis, the Power actually have a 45.65% chance of winning, while the Dockers sit at 54.35%.
That’s a big difference, and it means Port Adelaide are being seriously underrated. Based on our numbers, the true odds for the Power should be closer to $2.19, not the massive $3.25 being offered.
So what’s the play? Well, if we trust the analysis, there’s some juicy value in backing Port Adelaide. They’re a much better chance than the market gives them credit for, and that gap creates a strong edge.
Port Adelaide’s win probability is way higher than the bookies are suggesting, making $3.25 a cracking value bet.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Fremantle by 5.4
- Average Points Against Per Match: Fremantle by 11.9
- Power Rank: Fremantle by 6
- Average Winning Margin: Fremantle by 3.65
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Port Adelaide by 5
- Win Percentage: Fremantle by 10%
- Average Opponent Rank: Even
- Average Opponent Win %: Port Adelaide by 12%
- Average Opponent Points For: Port Adelaide by 6
- Highest Score For: Port Adelaide by 32
- Highest Score Against: Port Adelaide by 11
- Highest Total Match Score: Fremantle by 4
- Lowest Total Match Score: Fremantle by 5
- Adjusted Points For: Port Adelaide by 5
- Adjusted Points Against: Fremantle by 8
- True Power Score (Weighted): Fremantle by 4
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 171.7
- Game Style Prediction: Grinder
- Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Fremantle: 8, Port Adelaide: 8 – (Even)
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Fremantle: 9.33, Port Adelaide: 10.67 – (Fremantle by 1.34)
Over/Under Tempo: Moderate tempo expected; game may swing between tight contests and short bursts of scoring.
Game Style Prediction: Grinder. Expect a hard-fought battle with defensive pressure and limited scoring runs.
What to do?
Best bet is to take the Port Adelaide +18.5 this game.
As for multis, take the Port Adelaide +18.5, UNDER 167.5, Fremantle 1-39 for $7.00 with Unibet as shown below.
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide Betting Tips
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide Multi Tip:
Port Adelaide +18.5
UNDER 167.5
Fremantle 1-39
@ $7.00 with Unibet
Related:
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