AFL Betting Tips Round 7
Nine games across four days – and the biggest disagreement…
Essendon vs Richmond Prediction
Game 2 of Round 11 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 23 sees Essendon vs Richmond at the MCG on Friday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7.
Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers Predictions
Friday, May 23, 2026
7:40 pm AEDT @ the MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
69 : 63
Win Percentages
Essendon 57.64%
Richmond 42.36%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Essendon Bombers set at $1.33, and $3.20 for the Richmond Tigers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
Let’s have a quick look at where the value sits in this Essendon vs Richmond matchup.
Unibet’s odds have Essendon heavily favoured, giving them an implied probability of 70.64%. Richmond, on the other hand, are way out at 29.36% according to the bookies. But here’s where it gets interesting – our analysis suggests the Tigers actually have a 42.36% shot at taking this one, while the Bombers sit at 57.64%.
That’s a pretty big gap between what the market thinks and what our numbers are saying. Based on our take, Richmond’s true odds should be more like $2.36 – but the bookies are offering them at $3.20. That’s some serious value for anyone keen on a calculated punt.
So, what does it all mean? Simply put, Richmond are being underrated here. If our analysis is on the money, there’s a nice edge in backing the Tigers at those odds.
Richmond’s chances are stronger than what the odds suggest, making a value bet at $3.20 a tempting opportunity.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Essendon vs Richmond Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Essendon by 6
- Average Points Against Per Match: Essendon by 7.4
- Power Rank: Essendon by 5
- Average Winning Margin: Essendon by 4.13
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Essendon by 4
- Win Percentage: Essendon by 26%
- Average Opponent Rank: Even
- Average Opponent Win %: Richmond by 10%
- Average Opponent Points For: Richmond by 3
- Highest Score For: Essendon by 10
- Highest Score Against: Richmond by 21
- Highest Total Match Score: Essendon by 53
- Lowest Total Match Score: Essendon by 19
- Adjusted Points For: Essendon by 4
- Adjusted Points Against: Essendon by 6
- True Power Score (Weighted): Essendon by 3.2
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 164.1
- Game Style Prediction: Grinder
- Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Essendon: 11, Richmond: 11 – (Even)
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Essendon: 9.17, Richmond: 13.50 – (Essendon by 4.33)
Over/Under Tempo: Mid-to-low tempo game expected; play may slow down with a focus on contested footy.
Game Style Prediction: Grinder. Expect a physical, close-quarters contest with scoring at a premium.
What to do?
Best bet is to take the Richmond +18.5.
As for multis, take the Richmond +18.5, UNDER 165.5, Essendon 1-39 for $6.75 with Unibet.
Essendon vs Richmond Betting Tips
Related:
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AFL Injury List
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