Essendon vs Richmond Prediction

Game 2 of Round 11 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 23 sees Essendon vs Richmond at the MCG on Friday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers Predictions

Friday, May 23, 2025

7:40 pm AEDT @ the MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Essendon

69 : 63

Richmond

Win Percentages

Essendon 57.64%

Richmond 42.36%

Essendon

Richmond

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Essendon Bombers set at $1.33, and $3.20 for the Richmond Tigers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Bombers 70.64%
Tigers 29.36%

The Betting Edge

Let’s have a quick look at where the value sits in this Essendon vs Richmond matchup.

Unibet’s odds have Essendon heavily favoured, giving them an implied probability of 70.64%. Richmond, on the other hand, are way out at 29.36% according to the bookies. But here’s where it gets interesting – our analysis suggests the Tigers actually have a 42.36% shot at taking this one, while the Bombers sit at 57.64%.

That’s a pretty big gap between what the market thinks and what our numbers are saying. Based on our take, Richmond’s true odds should be more like $2.36 – but the bookies are offering them at $3.20. That’s some serious value for anyone keen on a calculated punt.

So, what does it all mean? Simply put, Richmond are being underrated here. If our analysis is on the money, there’s a nice edge in backing the Tigers at those odds.

Richmond’s chances are stronger than what the odds suggest, making a value bet at $3.20 a tempting opportunity.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

Essendon vs Richmond Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Essendon by 6
Average Points Against Per Match: Essendon by 7.4
Power Rank: Essendon by 5
Average Winning Margin: Essendon by 4.13
SoS Adjusted Points For: Essendon by 4
Win Percentage: Essendon by 26%
Average Opponent Rank: Even
Average Opponent Win %: Richmond by 10%
Average Opponent Points For: Richmond by 3
Highest Score For: Essendon by 10
Highest Score Against: Richmond by 21
Highest Total Match Score: Essendon by 53
Lowest Total Match Score: Essendon by 19
Adjusted Points For: Essendon by 4
Adjusted Points Against: Essendon by 6
True Power Score (Weighted): Essendon by 3.2
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 164.1
Game Style Prediction: Grinder
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Essendon: 11, Richmond: 11 – (Even)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Essendon: 9.17, Richmond: 13.50 – (Essendon by 4.33)