Essendon vs North Melbourne Prediction

The bookies have gone all-in on the Bombers with a 67.83% chance, but our deep dive shows Essendon more around the 55.69% mark. Meanwhile, North Melbourne’s real chance looks a lot stronger at 44.31% compared to the 32.17% the bookies are giving them.

That means there’s a decent bit of value on North Melbourne here. They’re paying $2.95 at the time of writing, and with the gap in true winning chances, this looks like a classic sneaky underdog opportunity.

Power Rankings Breakdown

• Predicted Final Score: Bombers 79 – 71 Kangaroos
• Average Points For: Essendon 82.67, North Melbourne 85.71 (North by 3 points)
• Average Points Against: Essendon 95.17, North Melbourne 110.71 (Essendon much stronger defensively by 15.54 points)
• Win Percentage: Essendon 50.00%, North Melbourne 14.29% (Big edge to Essendon)
• Adjusted Points For: Essendon 85.54, North Melbourne 94.60 (North Melbourne slightly better in attack based on strength of schedule)
• Adjusted Points Against: Essendon 100.98, North Melbourne 109.28 (Essendon slightly better defensively)
• Over/Under Tempo: 195.2 (Expect a relatively high-scoring, fast-paced match)
• Game Style Prediction: Balanced Matchup

Essendon sit at 11th in the power rankings, while North Melbourne are down at 15th. That’s a 4-place edge to the Bombers, not massive, but enough to suggest they’re the better side overall. Interestingly though, North Melbourne have had some monster winning margins when they get it right (averaging a 59-point win when they do), compared to Essendon’s tighter average winning margin of 17.67 points.

What to do?

Both teams have faced pretty similar quality opposition, but Essendon’s opponents have been winning more often and scoring more heavily, meaning the Bombers have done it a bit tougher and should be battle-hardened. North Melbourne have shown a higher top-end scoring ceiling though, with a highest score of 125 points compared to Essendon’s 100, so if it turns into a shootout, don’t count the Roos out entirely.

Overall, the numbers tell us Essendon are rightly favourites, but not as far ahead as the odds suggest.

Take the North Melbourne +16.5 line, as this game is expected to be tighter than the bookies anticipate., and with both teams average opponent scores and points for averaging 174 its highly likely that the score will end up under the Unibet 183.5 aswell.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Essendon: 82.67, North Melbourne: 85.71 – (North Melbourne by 3 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Essendon: 95.17, North Melbourne: 110.71 – (Essendon by 15.54 points)
• Power Rank: Essendon: 11, North Melbourne: 15 – (Essendon by 4)
• Average Winning Margin: Essendon: 17.67, North Melbourne: 59.00 – (North Melbourne by 41.33 points)
• SoS Adjusted Points For: Essendon: 85.54, North Melbourne: 94.60 – (North Melbourne by 9.06 points)
• Win Percentage: Essendon: 50.00%, North Melbourne: 14.29% – (Essendon by 35.71%)
• Average Opponent Rank: Essendon: 8.75, North Melbourne: 8.75 – (Even)
• Average Opponent Win %: Essendon: 53.57%, North Melbourne: 30.06% – (Essendon by 23.51%)
• Average Opponent Points For: Essendon: 89.15, North Melbourne: 86.54 – (North Melbourne by 2.61 points)
• Highest Score For: Essendon: 100.00, North Melbourne: 125.00 – (North Melbourne by 25 points)
• Highest Score Against: Essendon: 161.00, North Melbourne: 153.00 – (North Melbourne by 8 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Essendon: 261.00, North Melbourne: 224.00 – (Essendon by 37 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Essendon: 132.00, North Melbourne: 169.00 – (Essendon by 37 points)
• Adjusted Points For: Essendon: 85.54, North Melbourne: 94.60 – (North Melbourne by 9.06 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: Essendon: 100.98, North Melbourne: 109.28 – (Essendon by 8.3 points)
• True Power Score (Weighted): Essendon: 14.00, North Melbourne: 14.60 – (Essendon by 0.6 points)
• OVER/UNDER Tempo: 195.2
• Game Style Prediction: Balanced Matchup