Game 8 of Round 10 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 18 sees Brisbane vs Melbourne at the Gabba on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7.
Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons Predictions
Sunday, May 18, 2026
3:20 pm AEDT @ the Gabba, Brisbane
Final Score Prediction
Brisbane
86 : 68
Melbourne
Win Percentages
Brisbane60.55%
Melbourne39.45%
Brisbane
Melbourne
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Brisbane Lions set at $1.16, and $5.00 for the Melbourne Demons, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Lions
81.18%
Demons
18.82%
The Betting Edge
Unibet has Brisbane at a very short $1.16, which translates to a whopping 81.18% implied chance of winning. Meanwhile, Melbourne are out at a huge $5.00, giving them just an 18.82% chance according to the market.
But here’s the kicker, our model doesn’t see it as that lopsided. We’ve got Brisbane winning 60.55% of the time, and Melbourne with a much more competitive 39.45% chance. That’s a massive difference, and it screams value on the Demons.
Yes, the Lions are clearly the better side across most categories, but not enough to justify the $1.16 price tag. If you’re looking for a high-upside punt, Melbourne’s $5.00 offering is seriously juicy.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Brisbane vs Melbourne Head-to-Head Stats
Average Points For Per Match:Brisbane by 15 points
Average Points Against Per Match:Brisbane by 14.1 points
Power Rank: Brisbane by 9
Average Winning Margin: Melbourne by 0.24 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Brisbane by 9 points
Win %: Brisbane by 44%
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Brisbane by 6 ranks
Average Opponent Win %: Melbourne by 19%
Average Opponent Points For: Melbourne by 9 points
Highest Score For: Brisbane by 10 points
Highest Score Against: Brisbane by 20 points
Highest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 11 points
Lowest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 16 points
Adjusted Points For: Brisbane by 9 points
Adjusted Points Against: Brisbane by 6 points
True Power Score (Weighted): Brisbane by 8.6
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 162.5
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Brisbane: 10.83, Melbourne: 14.50 – (Brisbane by 3.67)
Over/Under Tempo: Expect a slower pace, with both sides trying to keep it tight and structured.
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout. But on the lower scoring end, with defence leading the way.
What to do?
Brisbane are worthy favourites, no question. They’ve been far more dominant on both ends of the field and have handled their schedule more convincingly. But at $1.16, the value is completely gone.
Melbourne at $5.00? That’s where the opportunity lies.
Our model gives them nearly a 40% shot, more than double the chance implied by the odds. It’s a long shot, sure, but one that holds genuine value.
If you’re the type to back a bold roughie when the market’s off the mark, the Demons are 100% worth a cheeky flutter here.
Best bet is to take the Demons +31.5 this game.
As for multis, take the Melbourne +31.5, UNDER 178.5, Brisbane 1-39 for $4.60 with Unibet.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy.
Connect on LinkedInEmail Contact
