AFL Round 5

12.5 points of daylight between model and market. Wet conditions amplify Sydney’s contested possession dominance.

Carlton competitive in three of four this year. Market’s overcorrecting on Adelaide’s home record.

Cold, windy, wet — slug-fest conditions. Free cover on a Pies side that always turns up against the Dockers.

North are 3-1 and tackling relentlessly. Cold Barossa Park suits a grind.

Losses all against top-four sides. You don’t need Essendon to win — just show up.

Dogs are 4-0 and on top of the ladder. Wet conditions favour their clearance dominance.

Tight edge on the line — H2H is the cleaner play. Line at $1.90 is the value kicker.

Small ground amplifies GWS’s ball movement. Richmond winless and out of gas.