SuperCoach Round Seven Highlights and Player Performances
Celebrating Green Day The impressive results in Round Seven deserve…
St Kilda vs Brisbane Prediction
St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions Predictions
Saturday, March 28, 2026
12:35pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
St Kilda Saints
77 : 100
Brisbane Lions
The Setup
Brisbane are 0-2. The reigning premiers haven’t won a game yet in 2026. And the model has them winning this by 23 points.
The market’s line of 11.5 is already cautious – and I think it’s underselling how good Brisbane actually are when everything clicks. Their away_momentum sits at 115.4, the highest reading of any team in the model this round, and that -117.90 SHAP influence is enormous. The Lions are travelling in serious form despite what the ladder says.
The 0-2 start tells a story, but not the one you might think. Losses to the Western Bulldogs and Sydney, followed by a bye, are about as tough a draw as you can get to open a season. Key players returning from injury and suspension – including Zac Bailey and Darcy Gardiner – should sharpen them considerably.
St Kilda are 1-2 and showed fight in a narrow win over GWS last week. They’re a pressure-based side that works hard to lock the ball in their forward half. But Brisbane have won their past seven meetings with the Saints by an average of 48 points. That’s not a rivalry – that’s a mismatch.
Best Bets
The model has Brisbane winning by 23. The market line is 11.5. That’s an 11.5-point gap in my favour – and with the Lions returning key personnel and carrying the best momentum reading in the model, I’m backing them to cover comfortably.
The play is Brisbane Lions -11.5 at $1.91. Solid stake – this is one of the clearer calls on the card this round.
Worth noting: Brisbane have historically been a poor line bet in March, failing to cover in nine straight games during that month. I’m not ignoring that. But the gap between model and market here is too big to walk away from.
BEST BET
Confidence
7/10
What to Watch
- Lachie Neale’s impact through the midfield: Already averaging 33 disposals across his two games in 2026, Neale is the engine that drives Brisbane’s ball movement. If St Kilda can’t slow him at stoppages, the Lions will generate the repeat inside 50s that put games to bed.
- Brisbane’s fast start: Both losses this season involved the Lions conceding heavily in the opening stages. If they come out with intent from the first bounce – especially with returning players adding depth – St Kilda’s pressure game gets found out quickly.
- Jack Sinclair’s workload for the Saints: He’s had 30-plus disposals in all three games this season and is St Kilda’s most reliable ball-winner. If the Saints are going to compete, they need Sinclair running hot and generating forward entries off the back of his work rate.
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