Bulldogs vs Dolphins Prediction

Game 1 of Round 12 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on May 22 features the Bulldogs vs Dolphins at Accor Stadium on Thursday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Channel 9, & 9NOW. 🏉🔥

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Dolphins Predictions

Thursday, May 22, 2025

7:50 pm @ Accor Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Bulldogs

26 : 20

Dolphins

Win Percentages

Bulldogs 64.97%

Dolphins 35.03%

Bulldogs

Dolphins

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Canterbury Bulldogs set at $1.30, and $3.50 for the Dolphins, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Bulldogs 72.92%
Dolphins 27.08%

The Betting Edge

The bookie’s got the Bulldogs as clear favourites at $1.30, giving them a 72.92% chance of winning. But our analysis paints a slightly different picture, with the Dogs actually sitting closer to a 64.97% win probability.

Now here’s where it gets interesting, the Dolphins are priced at $3.50, which means the bookie reckons they’ve only got a 27.08% shot. But based on our numbers, they’ve actually got a 35.03% chance, which is significantly stronger than what the odds are suggesting.

That difference creates a solid value opportunity. Our numbers suggest the true odds for the Dolphins should be more like $2.85. So with the market offering $3.50, we’re looking at a pretty decent overlay, and that’s where the edge comes in.

The edge is all about the Dolphins being undervalued. At $3.50, they’re offering good value based on our 35.03% win probability.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Here’s how the two teams compare based on the latest performance metrics:

Bulldogs vs Dolphins Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Bulldogs by 4.1
Average Points Against Per Match: Bulldogs by 6.4
Power Rank: Bulldogs by 8
Average Winning Margin: Dolphins by 2
SoS Adjusted Points For: Bulldogs by 2
Win Percentage: Bulldogs by 54%
Average Opponent Rank: Bulldogs by 4
Average Opponent Win %: Bulldogs by 20%
Average Opponent Points For: Bulldogs by 1
Highest Score For: Dolphins by 2
Highest Score Against: Dolphins by 2
Highest Total Match Score: Dolphins by 4
Lowest Total Match Score: Bulldogs by 8
Adjusted Points For: Bulldogs by 2
Adjusted Points Against: Bulldogs by 8
True Power Score (Weighted): Bulldogs by 7
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 41.7
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Bulldogs: 5, Dolphins: 8 – (Bulldogs by 3)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Bulldogs: 6.00, Dolphins: 9.50 – (Bulldogs by 3.5)

Over/Under Tempo: Low tempo game expected, with minimal scoring and controlled pace.

Game Style Prediction: Likely blowout. Expect one-sided dominance with few total points scored.

What to do?

The Bulldogs should be flying home this week proud as a puppy with a new toy, take the Dolphins +9.5 this week as they point difference is not expected to be a washout.

Looking at multis go the Bulldogs 1-12, Dolphins +9.5, and the OVER 44.5 for a handy little $11.06 with Unibet as shown below.