Roosters vs Knights Grand Final Betting Tips & Prediction

NRL Grand Final • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

SYD

$1.46

Sunday, October 4 • 7:30pm AEDT

35 : 20

Accor Stadium

NEW

$2.80

Roosters by 15 points

Model Predicted Margin

Roosters by 15

Current Market

Roosters -6.5

8.5 pts edge

Our Bets This Game

H2HRoosters to win

$1.46

LINERoosters -6.5

$1.87

TOTALOver 42.5 points

$1.89

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Odds correct at time of posting

The Knights have won three sudden death finals and go into the decider with a new hooker. The Roosters have had nine days off and have scored 82 points across their last two finals.

What the numbers cannot see

The Roosters’ recent scoring is two games, the 46-10 semi final and the 36-20 preliminary final. Before those they lost four in a row, including the qualifying final 12-19 to Penrith, and Newcastle have conceded 10, 10 and 14 in their three finals. The 15 point margin is my read of how these two sides match up, not a promise, and a one score game late is well within range.

Newcastle finished seventh and have won three finals in a row without a week off, the last of them with 12 men for the whole second half. It is the best story in the game. I am still not betting on it.

The two meetings this year were decided by 14 and by one. The one point came at McDonald Jones with Newcastle missing Kalyn Ponga before kickoff and losing two more players during the game, and they still lost. I read that as Newcastle at their most stubborn, not as what Sunday looks like.

The market has the Roosters by 6.5 and I have them by 15. The gap is the Roosters’ attack, which has scored 46 and 36 in its last two finals, against a Newcastle side on its fourth knockout week with a change at nine. That is where the line gets covered.

The total is the harder leg. Grand finals usually finish under 42.5, and this Newcastle defence has given up 34 points in three finals. What gets it over is these two sides: both games between them this year cleared it.

The risk is the thing Newcastle keep doing. They held Penrith scoreless after half time, and a Roosters side that lost four in a row before this fortnight is not immune to a slow night. If this is 12-10 at half time, both legs are in trouble.

Roosters by 15, covering the line, with the over riding on the same read.

The one point in July, and who was missing

The Roosters won 23-22 at McDonald Jones Stadium in Round 21. Daly Cherry-Evans kicked the field goal in the 77th minute, his 31st, and James Tedesco scored three tries. That was the Roosters at close to full strength.

Newcastle were not. Kalyn Ponga was pulled out on the Thursday with quad tightness, Dane Gagai was out with a calf, Dylan Lucas dislocated and broke his ankle in the first half and Dylan Brown tore his ACL after the break. They still led 10-6 at half time, led 16-10 in the second half and had it 22-22 with seven minutes left.

That is the most direct evidence I have that this is a competitive game, and it is why I am not putting a bigger number on it.

Round 7 at Allianz is the other side of the ledger. The Knights led 24-12 at half time on a Fletcher Hunt hat trick and conceded 26 unanswered points after it. When the Roosters find their rhythm they score in bunches, and that is the version the 6.5 is priced for.

Sandon Smith gets the game the Roosters never gave him

Sandon Smith played 46 games for the Roosters over three seasons, mostly as Sam Walker’s cover, and was released at the end of 2025. He went to Newcastle on a four year deal and shared the halves with Dylan Brown for stretches of the year, in and out of the side. Then Brown’s knee went in July and Smith became the halfback.

In the preliminary final he scored the two tries that beat Penrith. A quick tap after a Billy Phillips high shot and 50 metres untouched in the 59th minute to make it 16-14, then an intercept off Liam Martin with a minute left and 80 metres the other way. He kicked three from four as well.

He gets to do it against Trent Robinson, against the halfback he understudied, and against the club that decided it did not need him. I do not think revenge wins football games. I do think a halfback playing with nothing to lose, behind a pack that has just held Penrith scoreless for a half, is a live problem for a 6.5 line, and I have weighed it.

Three sudden death weeks, and a hooker suspended for the decider

Newcastle finished seventh, so there was never a week off. They beat South Sydney 20-10 at Allianz, went to Eden Park and beat the Warriors 12-10 in front of 48,511, then beat Penrith 22-14 at Accor Stadium with 12 men from the 36th minute. They have conceded 34 points in three finals and did not give up a point after half time in the preliminary final.

Phoenix Crossland was sent off for the hip drop that broke Nathan Cleary’s ankle, the first player sent off for a hip drop in NRL history. He pleaded guilty and the judiciary handed him a four game ban on Tuesday night, so he misses the decider and all three of New Zealand’s World Cup group games. Newcastle’s confirmed team list records him as an out. Harrison Graham starts at hooker in his place, Kyle McCarthy comes onto the bench and Diesel Hagan is the reserve. Jacob Saifiti is already suspended for the whole finals series. Adam Gee referees the decider, his second grand final after 2023.

The Roosters lost their qualifying final 12-19 to Penrith, then won 46-10 against Cronulla and 36-20 against the Dolphins at Suncorp. They played Friday and Newcastle played Sunday, so it is nine days of preparation against seven, and a fourth straight knockout week for the Knights. Momentum is real. So is a short turnaround into a side that has spent a fortnight scoring at will. Every result from both roads to the decider is on our NRL Grand Final tips page - Nrl tips nrl grand final nrl tips grand final.

Justin Holbrook knows this Roosters side from the inside

Justin Holbrook was Trent Robinson’s assistant at the Roosters from 2014 to 2017 and again from 2024 until Newcastle appointed him on 15 September 2025, a year early on a three year deal. He walked out of the Roosters coaching box and into a club that had just finished last.

He knows how this Roosters attack is built. That is worth something on grand final night, and it is also the kind of edge that gets overrated because it makes a good story.

What I weight more is the man across from him. Trent Robinson has coached three grand finals, 2013, 2018 and 2019, and won all three. Three from three on the one night that counts.

Two farewells on the one team sheet

This is Daly Cherry-Evans’s 379th NRL game and his last, before a one year farewell season with Hull FC in 2027. It is his third grand final as a player, and the field goal in July was his 31st, the most of anyone in the NRL era. At 37 DCE is still the man you want with the ball when the game is a point either way.

Mark Nawaqanitawase is playing his last game of rugby league before he goes back to union with Saitama Wild Knights in Japan. He has 20 tries this season, two of them in the preliminary final, including a 90 metre intercept that opened the scoring against the Dolphins. Newcastle’s kicking game cannot afford to keep feeding him the ball in space.

The Roosters have one out, and it is Connor Watson, who failed a Category 1 head injury assessment against the Dolphins. The club sought clearance from an independent doctor to have the 11 day stand down waived and it was denied, so he misses what would have been his first grand final and his last game as a Rooster. Benaiah Ioelu takes his spot on the bench. Sam Walker came through his return from a syndesmosis injury after a record equalling 27 days, Trent Robinson says he is good to go, and Walker is named at halfback. Victor Radley took the early plea on a grade one dangerous contact charge, paid $3,000, and is named. Daly Cherry-Evans and Mark Nawaqanitawase are both named, so both farewells go ahead.

Why the over is a pick and not a bet

The last ten grand finals produced 26, 40, 27, 22, 46, 26, 40, 50, 20 and 48 points. Five of the ten stayed under 40 and the average is 34.5. The market has this one at 42.5, so the over needs a decider that scores more than most deciders do.

The case for it is real. The Roosters scored 82 points in their two finals wins and the two meetings this year finished with 62 and 45 points on the board. The case against is the Newcastle side you have watched for three weeks, whose finals finished with 30, 22 and 36.

My read has the Roosters in the mid 30s and the game at 55, which clears the total with room, but only if both sides post their number. I trust the winner and the line more than I trust that scoreline. The Bureau has Sunday night at Sydney Olympic Park dry, about 20 degrees at kickoff and 17 by full time with light winds, so there is nothing in the conditions to drag the total down.

Wooden spoon to the first Sunday in October

Newcastle finished last in 2025 with six wins from 24 games. Twelve months later they are in a grand final for the first time since 2001, the first side since the 2010 Roosters to get there 12 months after a wooden spoon, and those Roosters lost the decider 8-32. Western Suburbs are the other precedent, taking the 1933 spoon and then winning the 1934 premiership 15-12.

No side has won the premiership from outside the top four in the NRL era, and Canterbury in 1995, who finished sixth, are the most recent to do it at all. Nobody has done the wooden spoon to premiership double in the NRL era.

I am not tipping it. I am also not pretending this is a normal seventh placed side, because a normal seventh placed side does not beat the minor premiers with 12 men.

Roosters vs Knights Tip

Roosters by 15, covering the 6.5. Newcastle scored in the low 20s both times they met the Roosters this year and I have them about there again. The Roosters put 82 on Cronulla and the Dolphins, and against a side on its fourth knockout week with a change at nine, I have them in the mid 30s.

Roosters vs Knights Key Stats

Roosters vs Knights Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Mark Nawaqanitawase to score a try, $1.85.Mark Nawaqanitawase has crossed twice in each of his last two games. I have his side putting up mid 30s against a tired Newcastle, so $1.85 is fair for a winger in that form.

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These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.