Roosters vs Knights Grand Final Betting Tips & Prediction
The Knights have earned this, and I still cannot get…
Panthers vs Knights Prediction
I have the Panthers going through, and I am still taking the Knights with the points. The Panthers are the better side and the week off will tell late, but a Knights team that has won two knockout games on defence does not get beaten by eleven.
NRL Preliminary Final • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
PEN
$1.29
Sunday, September 27 • 4:00pm AEST
27: 18
Accor Stadium
NEW
$3.66
Panthers by 9 points
Model Predicted Margin
Panthers by 9
Current Market
Panthers -10.5
1.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HPanthers to win
$1.29
LINEKnights +10.5
$1.83
TOTALOver 40.5 points
$1.89
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Odds correct at time of posting
The Panthers come into this one fresh off a week’s rest. The Knights have won two knockout games without letting anyone away from them, and ten and a half is a lot of points to give a side doing that.
The Panthers have had a week off. The Knights have been to Auckland and won a sudden death game to get here. Ten and a half is more than I think that gap is worth, and that is where my money goes.
The week off belongs to the Panthers
The Panthers have not played since they beat the Roosters in week one of the finals. The Knights have played two weekends straight, the second of them in Auckland, and both were sudden death. Over eighty minutes that is the difference between a middle rotation that can still run at the end and one that cannot, and it is the main reason I have the Panthers winning.
The Panthers put 44 and 48 on this lot
The last two meetings finished 44-12 and 48-12, both at McDonald Jones, so you can see exactly what the market is pricing.
What those scorelines do not carry is a Knights side that has since won 20-10 and 12-10 with a season riding on each of them. This Newcastle defence is a different thing to the one that shipped those two results, and that is the whole case for the points. It is the read I am holding for the rest of the page.
The foot, and what Penrith named around it
Nathan Cleary is named at halfback despite the foot he picked up in that week one win over the Roosters, and Jack Cogger is on the bench after a three game suspension.
I am not reading that as a side in trouble. A halfback managing a foot still wins Penrith this game, he just wins it by less, and the margin is the bit I am betting. Short prices leave you no room for a wobble like that.
Where the points come from
Count the totals sitting on this page before you take the over. The two meetings blew the roof off 40.5. The two knockout wins came nowhere near it, and they are the recent pair, so they are the ones stuck in your head. Two over, two under, and I am still on the over.
Here is why. Those knockout wins had sides at the other end that do not score like Penrith. I make this 45 and I have it 27-18, which tells you where the over is coming from: Penrith posting their number, not Newcastle cutting loose. A better Newcastle defence does not stop the Panthers getting into the high twenties, and it is the same read that has the Knights covering.
A passing shower will not hold a scoreboard down. Eighty minutes of steady rain would.
Panthers vs Knights Tip
I have the Panthers by nine, and nine does not cover ten and a half. The same read has this game finishing past 40.5, so the play I am featuring is the multi, and that one lives in the KRUZEY app. If you want one leg only, the Knights +10.5 at $1.83.
Panthers vs Knights Key Stats
POINTS AGAINST
PEN15
NEW25
This is why I have the Panthers winning, and it is also why the Knights need every one of the points the market is giving them.
KICK RETURN METRES
PEN192
NEW152
Straight up, this one is against my bet. The Panthers get out of their own end far more easily, and that field position is how a tight finals game gets away from a side.
POINTS FOR
PEN29
NEW26
Two sides that score, which is the base of the over. Penrith’s defence pulls that projection a long way back and I still have this game clear of 40.5.
Panthers vs Knights Form Guide
Penrith Panthers
LWWWW
- R24: L 6-12 vs Roosters
- R25: W 22-14 vs Storm
- R26: W 24-10 vs Bulldogs
- R27: W 38-10 vs Wests Tigers
- R28: W 19-12 vs Roosters
Newcastle Knights
WLLWW
- R24: W 36-26 vs Titans
- R25: L 24-44 vs Sea Eagles
- R26: L 32-46 vs Warriors
- R28: W 20-10 vs Rabbitohs
- R29: W 12-10 vs Warriors
Ben’s Verdict
The Panthers go to the grand final. There are two edges here and they are not the same size: the line is a point and a half, my nine against their ten and a half, and the total is four and a half, so the total is the bigger one. That is why it is on the ticket rather than sitting in a footnote, and the +10.5 is still the safer of the two if you only want one. The risk is plain: if the Panthers score early and the Knights have to chase, the points are gone by the hour mark.
Our Bets
H2H Panthers to win$1.29
LINE Knights +10.5$1.83
TOTAL Over 40.5 points$1.89
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Player Prop Predictions
Dane Gagai to score a try, $4.50.Dane Gagai has crossed in three of his last six with a double in that run, and I have Newcastle keeping this within ten and a half, so he gets his share of the ball in good positions. At $4.50 that is a fair sight longer than his record deserves.
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These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Key Facts
| Match | Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights |
| Date | Sunday, September 27 |
| Kick-off | 4:00pm AEST |
| Venue | Accor Stadium |
| Final | NRL Preliminary Final |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Knights +10.5 @ $1.83 |
| Predicted Score | Penrith Panthers 27 – Newcastle Knights 18 |
Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights FAQs
Who will win Panthers vs Knights?
The Panthers, by nine. They finished on top of the ladder and they have had a week off, while the Knights have had to win two sudden death games back to back to be here. At $1.29 the market has them the same way.
What is the best tip for Panthers vs Knights?
My best bet is Knights +10.5 at $1.83.
How many points will be scored in Panthers vs Knights?
I make it 45, clear of the 40.5 on offer. On my own read that is 27-18, so the over is riding on Penrith posting their score rather than on Newcastle cutting loose. The over 40.5 is $1.89.
Who is Penrith Panthers playing next week?
A preliminary final is sudden death, so there is no next week for the loser. If the Panthers win, they play the Grand Final at Accor Stadium on Sunday 4 October.
Who is Newcastle Knights playing next week?
The Knights are in the same position. Beat the Panthers and they play the Grand Final - at Accor Stadium on Sunday 4 October; lose and the year is over.
