Roosters vs Knights Grand Final Betting Tips & Prediction
The Knights have earned this, and I still cannot get…
Dolphins vs Roosters Prediction
The Dolphins have won eight on the trot and they have beaten the Roosters twice this year, so the short price is fair enough. But the Roosters put 46 on the Sharks last start, they have their halfback back, and two and a half points between these two is not the gap that run makes it look.
NRL Preliminary Final • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
DOL
$1.71
Friday, September 25 • 7:50pm AEST
22 : 26
Suncorp Stadium
SYD
$2.17
Roosters by 4 points
Model Predicted Margin
Roosters by 4
Current Market
Dolphins -2.5
6.5 pts to Roosters
Our Bets This Game
H2HRoosters to win
$2.17
LINERoosters +2.5
$1.82
TOTALOver 45.5 points
$1.82
MULTIRoosters +2.5, Over 45.5 points & Herbie Farnworth Anytime Try
$7.29
Odds correct at time of posting
Eight straight wins has the Dolphins favourites and I am not with them. I have the Roosters winning this, and I have it scoring.
Eight in a row has done the pricing here and not much else has. Two and a half points is the market telling you it is nowhere near as sure as that streak looks.
The two results that matter are both Dolphins
No dressing this up. The Dolphins beat the Roosters 48-10 at this ground in June and 26-12 in Sydney in August, and they arrive on eight straight wins. If you want a reason to stay off me, that is it, and it is a good one. Across the seven games these two have played the Roosters still lead it 4-3, and one of those was a 64-12 night here in 2025, but the two most recent are the Dolphins’ and I am not hiding behind a result from last year to make that go away. The 4-3 is context. The 2026 pair is the case against me.
The halfback is back and the spine changes
Sam Walker returns at halfback twenty four days after a syndesmosis injury and surgery, which moves Daly Cherry-Evans back to six. The spine that put 46 on the Sharks last start now has its halfback in it. I am not selling that as free money. Twenty four days after the injury, first hit out back, in a preliminary final, is a real risk, and the Dolphins will go looking for him early. What makes me wear it is the price. Four losses in their last five is ugly and I am not talking it away, but that same side won its semi final by 36, and two and a half points is not much to pay to find out which version turns up.
Where the points come from
These two produced 58 points at this ground in June and the Roosters have just scored 46, so the over is live. I have the total at 48. Add up what both sides have averaged all season and you land well north of that, and I have still knocked it back, because a preliminary final with a season riding on it tightens everything up. Their August meeting only got to 38 and that is the version that beats the over. Forty eight against a line of 45 and a half is me saying it gets there, not that it romps.
Roosters by four is the read
Four points my way, and at two and a half the market is charging me almost nothing to be a bit wrong. Back them straight and you need the result. Take the points and a late field goal does not finish you. Put the points together with the over and Herbie Farnworth to score and you are paid for backing the read the whole way through, which is the bolder version of it. Prices move, so check what is in front of you before you take one.
Dolphins vs Roosters Tip
I have the Roosters winning by four in a game that gets past 45 and a half, so Roosters to win and the over is where my money goes. Roosters +2.5 at $1.82 is the safer way to take the same read.
Dolphins vs Roosters Key Stats
MISSED TACKLES
DOL31
SYD28
The Roosters put more of their tackles away across a season, and in a game likely decided by one play I want the side that makes you earn every metre.
POINTS FOR
DOL28
SYD26
Two attacks that both post real scores, which is the argument for the over rather than the arm wrestle a knockout game is meant to be. I have still landed under what these two average all year, because finals footy takes some of that off.
LINE BREAKS
DOL6
SYD5
Barely anything in it, and I am not dressing a gap that small up as my big concern. The real case against me is the two results the Dolphins have already posted on the Roosters this year and four losses in the Roosters’ last five.
Dolphins vs Roosters Form Guide
The Dolphins
WWWWW
- R24: W 22-0 vs Sea Eagles
- R25: W 34-16 vs Eels
- R26: W 26-12 vs Roosters
- R27: W 24-20 vs Titans
- R28: W 26-16 vs Warriors
Sydney Roosters
LLLLW
- R25: L 24-25 vs Wests Tigers
- R26: L 12-26 vs Dolphins
- R27: L 20-50 vs Rabbitohs
- R28: L 12-19 vs Panthers
- R29: W 46-10 vs Sharks
Ben’s Verdict
Roosters by four, and I want them winning a game that scores. The Dolphins have won eight in a row and rolled this lot twice in 2026, so the risk is real and I am not pretending otherwise, but at two and a half points the market has already paid for that run. Roosters +2.5, the over 45.5 and Herbie Farnworth to score a try at $7.29 is the bet, and Roosters +2.5 at $1.82 on its own is the anchor. Prices move, check yours.
Our Bets
H2H Roosters to win$2.17
LINE Roosters +2.5$1.82
TOTAL Over 45.5 points$1.82
MULTI Roosters +2.5, Over 45.5 points & Herbie Farnworth Anytime Try$7.29
Player Prop Predictions
James Tedesco to score a try, $2.65. James Tedesco crossed last start and has a try in two of his last four, and with the Roosters winning a game that goes past 45 and a half he will be in the thick of it.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to score a try, $2.25. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has scored in his last two, a double then another one, and a try in four of his last seven says the Dolphins keep finding him even in a game they lose.
Mark Nawaqanitawase to score a try, $1.93. Two last start for Mark Nawaqanitawase and he has a try in three of his last seven, so a Roosters win in a match getting over 45 and a half points suits him perfectly.
Sam Walker to score a try, $4.00. Sam Walker has a try in two of his last five and put up a treble earlier in that run, and at $4.00 in a high scoring Roosters win there is plenty of value in him sniffing around the ruck.
Herbie Farnworth to score a try, $2.20. Herbie Farnworth has crossed in three straight and has a try in five of his last seven, the most reliable pattern on his own record, and the Dolphins will get their chances in a game heading past 45 and a half.
The Props I Like
PROP James Tedesco Anytime Try$2.65
PROP Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try$2.25
PROP Mark Nawaqanitawase Anytime Try$1.93
PROP Sam Walker Anytime Try$4.00
PROP Herbie Farnworth Anytime Try$2.20
Player Props MultiHerbie Farnworth Anytime Try, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try & James Tedesco Anytime Try, my price $13.12
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Key Facts
| Match | The Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters |
| Date | Friday, September 25 |
| Kick-off | 7:50pm AEST |
| Venue | Suncorp Stadium |
| Final | NRL Preliminary Final |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Roosters +2.5, Over 45.5 points & Herbie Farnworth Anytime Try @ $7.29 |
| Predicted Score | The Dolphins 22 – Sydney Roosters 26 |
The Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters FAQs
Who will win Dolphins vs Roosters?
The Roosters. I have them by four. The Dolphins have won the last two meetings and eight games on the trot, so this is not a comfortable one, but across the seven games these two have played the Roosters lead it 4-3. Roosters head to head is $2.17 if the winner is all you want.
What is the best bet for Dolphins vs Roosters?
My headline multi at $7.29 rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Herbie Farnworth Anytime Try. On its own, Roosters +2.5 at $1.82 is the anchor.
Will Dolphins vs Roosters go over 45.5 points?
I have it at 48, so yes, just. These two produced 58 points at this ground in June and the Roosters scored 46 last start. Their August meeting only got to 38 and knockout football does tighten up, which is why I am at 48 and not higher. The over 45.5 is $1.82.
Who is The Dolphins playing next week?
That comes down to this game. A preliminary final is sudden death, so a Dolphins win puts them in the grand final and a loss ends their season.
Who is Sydney Roosters playing next week?
The Roosters are in the same position. A win sends them to the grand final - and a loss finishes their season.
