Warriors vs Knights Prediction

NRL Semi Final • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

WAR

$1.51

Sunday, September 20 • 4:05pm AEST

36 : 21

Eden Park

NEW

$2.57

Warriors by 15 points

Model Predicted Margin

Warriors by 15

Current Market

Warriors -5.5

9.5 pts edge

Our Bets This Game

H2HWarriors to win

$1.51

LINEWarriors -5.5

$1.87

TOTALOver 44.5 points

$1.97

MULTIWarriors -5.5, Over 44.5 points & Chanel Harris-Tavita Anytime Try

$11.97

Claim Tips at Betr - Offer betr

Odds correct at time of posting

The Warriors have handled the Knights all season and the bookies still only want five and a half points. One bad night against the Dolphins has put a price on this line that I will take all week.

The market has spent a week reacting to a qualifying final loss and forgotten what the Warriors did to the Knights, twice, this season. That gap between the price and the form is the whole read here.

The Knights have not solved the Warriors this year

The Warriors have won six of their last seven against the Knights, and the two this season were not close: 46-32 three weeks ago and 38-12 in Newcastle before that. A Knights side that has not won in New Zealand since 2019 is being asked to do it in a knockout game. Nothing on the Knights’ team sheet says this version is the one that finally cracks them.

Eden Park is the honest risk

This is the first time these two have met at Eden Park, and the Warriors have won just one of six games there, so the sold out crowd is the home edge, not the ground. Their last start was a home loss to the Dolphins in which they managed 16 points, and that is the night the bookies are pricing. What is different is the opponent: the Knights leaked 44 and 46 in two of their last five, and this Warriors attack put 40 or more on the Broncos, Rabbitohs and Knights in the space of three weeks.

Fifteen points is my number, and the line is five and a half

Average the season out and you land about where the bookies have it, a six point game. I am not pricing the season, I am pricing this matchup. Both meetings this year were won by more than double this line, and the Knights’ last five say the defence that leaked in those games has not been fixed. The Knights beat the Rabbitohs 20-10 last week and deserve credit for the win, but that was a game they ground out rather than ran away with, and the Warriors do not play grind. Fifteen is where those two results and the Knights’ recent leak land me, and nine and a half points of line off the back of one Dolphins result is too much to give away.

Why the points come, and what could keep them down

Both meetings this season went past 44.5, one of them by a mile, and the Knights’ defence has leaked for months. The over is the second leg for me, and I will say plainly why I trust the margin more than the total: knockout football tightens up. Both sides’ finals games last week landed under this total and it is overcast with a moderate breeze at Eden Park. That is why 57 is my number and not one I would die on, but the game only has to get past 44.5, and these two have not played each other under that this year.

Jackson Ford out for the Warriors, Dylan Lucas in the Knights’ extended squad

The Warriors lose prop Jackson Ford to an ankle injury picked up in his comeback game, with Morgan Gannon called into the side. The Knights have Dylan Lucas in the extended squad after a fractured ankle, and whether he takes the field or not, neither change moves my number.

Warriors vs Knights Tip

I have the Warriors winning by 15 in a game that clears 44.5, and Warriors -5.5 on the line is the single I want most.

Warriors vs Knights Key Stats

Warriors vs Knights Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad to score a try, $2.00. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has crossed in three of his last six, with a double in there two starts back, and I have the Warriors scoring plenty on the way to a 15 point win. Even money for him to grab one is fair.

Greg Marzhew to score two or more tries, $5.50. Greg Marzhew has bagged two or more tries in three of his last seven games, and with this one clearing 44.5 there are points at both ends even with Newcastle on the wrong side of the result. $5.50 for another double is worth a go.

Dane Gagai to score a try, $4.00. Dane Gagai scored last start and has found the line in three of his last five, a double among them. Newcastle need to keep scoring to stay in a game going over the total, and $4.00 is decent for a bloke in that form.

Chanel Harris-Tavita to score a try, $3.25. Chanel Harris-Tavita crossed in five straight before two quiet ones, and the Warriors winning by 15 in a high scoring game puts him straight back in it. That run is why he anchors the multi, and $3.25 is more than fair for it.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.