Roosters vs Sharks Prediction

NRL Semi Final • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

SYD

$1.44

Saturday, September 19 • 7:50pm AEST

22 : 20

Allianz Stadium

CRO

$2.81

Roosters by 2 points

Model Predicted Margin

Roosters by 2

Current Market

Roosters -7.5

5.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HRoosters to win

$1.44

LINESharks +7.5

$1.90

TOTALUnder 45.5 points

$1.91

MULTISharks +7.5, Under 45.5 points & Robert Toia Anytime Try

$8.71

Claim Tips at Betr - Offer betr

Odds correct at time of posting

The Roosters have lost four straight and the bookies still want seven and a half points. Angus Crichton is back, but that is a lot of line for an attack that has gone quiet.

This is the game where the market and the form guide disagree the most, and I am siding with the form guide. The Roosters win, the Sharks cover, and the points stay down.

The Roosters’ price is a reputation, not a form line

Four straight losses, the last of them a seven point qualifying final defeat to the Panthers, and the Roosters are still giving up seven and a half. The last month says they are a two point better side than the Sharks, not an eight point better one. They have scored 12 points in three of their last five, and a team scoring 12 does not cover a line like this. The Sharks, meanwhile, are the side that played a knockout game last week and won it.

Angus Crichton is back, Egan Butcher is not

Angus Crichton has been named to return from a foot injury after 12 games out, a week after he was a late withdrawal against Penrith. That is the one genuine reason to think this Roosters side is better than the one that has turned up for the last month, and it is exactly why I am not backing the Sharks to win outright. Egan Butcher misses with concussion and Salesi Foketi comes into the side. For the Sharks it is the same 17 that went around last week.

Where the under comes from

The Sharks’ last two games finished with 44 and 42 points on the board, and the Roosters have not been past 24 themselves in five weeks. A semi final between a tidy Sharks side and a Roosters attack that is struggling for points is a low forties game to me, and the total sits at 45.5. The wind is up a touch, which will not help the kickers, but the case here is the two attacks, not the forecast.

The case for the Roosters running through the line

The Roosters beat the Sharks twice this season, 27-8 and 34-22, and neither game was a contest. What is different now is the scoreboard: those two wins came from a Roosters attack that was scoring freely, and the current one is not. Four of the last six meetings went past 45.5 too, so the under is not a free hit, but the recent form of both attacks says this one will not.

Roosters vs Sharks Tip

I have the Roosters winning by two, so the Sharks at +7.5 is where my money goes.

Roosters vs Sharks Key Stats

Roosters vs Sharks Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Robert Toia to score a try, $2.40. Robert Toia has scored in each of his last three and has a try in four of his last seven, so the form is running hot right when I need it. I have Sydney getting home by two, and $2.40 for him to keep that run going is a steady leg to build a multi on.

Sione Katoa to score two or more tries, $5.50. Sione Katoa bagged a double last start and has gone two or more in three of his last seven, with a 2, 2, 1, 2 across his last four games, so the doubles are a pattern not a fluke. I have this a two point game with Cronulla in it to the finish, and $5.50 for him to go two again is worth the swing.

Siosifa Talakai to score a try, $7.75. Siosifa Talakai snapped a four game drought with a try last start and has now crossed in three of his last seven. I have this a tight one with Cronulla well inside the 7.5, and at $7.75 he only needs to land once for the price to do all the work.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.