State Of Origin 2025 Predictions & Tips Game 1

NRL State of Origin Game 1

Game 1 of the 2025 NRL Ampol State of Origin on May 28 features the Maroons vs Blues at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Channel 9, & 9NOW. 🏉🔥

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Predictions

Wednesday, May 28, 2025

8:05 pm @ Suncorp Stadium, Sydney

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues

Final Score Prediction

Maroons

12 : 22

Blues

Win Percentages

Maroons 42.92%

Blues 57.08%

Queensland

New South Wales

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Queensland Maroons set at $2.23, and $1.66 for the New South Wales Blues, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Maroons 42.67%
Blues 57.33%

The Betting Edge

The bookies have the Blues as favourites here, with odds of $1.66 translating to a 57.33% implied chance of winning. Our prediction isn’t too far off, giving the Blues a 57.08% shot — pretty much in line with the market.

Where it gets a bit interesting is with the Maroons. They’re paying $2.23, which puts their implied probability at 42.67%. But our numbers rate Queensland slightly higher at 42.92%.

It’s only a minor difference, but there’s a sliver of value backing the Maroons. If our model’s on the mark, the true odds should be around $2.33, so the $2.23 on offer isn’t a bad shout.

It’s not a massive edge by any means, but in a close clash like this, even a small mismatch can be worth jumping on, and Queensland might just be the smarter punt at that price.

What to do?

In the first game of the State of Origin each year it can be difficult to pick the winner depending on who will be in the lineup etc. Bet bet this game is to take the Under 39.5.

Looking at multis go the Raiders 1-12, Raiders +1.5, and the OVER 43.5 for a handy little $12.27 with Unibet as shown below.