State Of Origin 2023 Game 1 Tips

Ben H / 29 May 2023

NRL State of Origin Game 1

Our analysis and betting tips for the 2024 State of Origin Game 2 are not yet live and will be put up closer to game day once more information has become available, you can find our previous State of Origin game 1 betting tips and analysis below.


Queensland vs New South Wales

As the 2023 State of Origin series commences, the anticipation is palpable. Queensland, the reigning champions, are set to defend their title in Adelaide, marking only the second time South Australia has hosted an Origin match. The Maroons, who triumphed in the 2020 series opener at the Adelaide Oval, are eager to replicate their success.

However, the Blues are not to be underestimated. Despite the introduction of three debutants – Nicho Hynes, Hudson Young, and Tevita Pangai Jr. – to Queensland’s one, the Blues are favourites for the 20th consecutive Origin match. The return of their star backline trio – Latrell Mitchell, Tom Trbojevic, and Josh Addo-Carr – who were absent from last year’s series defeat, significantly strengthens their lineup.

The match facts reveal an interesting pattern. Queensland has a history of overcoming the odds, having won three of its last four Origin I matches as an underdog. Furthermore, they have covered the line in three of their last four Origin matches. This resilience, coupled with the debut of Reece Walsh and the return of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and David Fifita to the starting 13, could be a game-changer for the Maroons.

Player facts also provide some intriguing insights. Tom Trbojevic, Valentine Holmes, Latrell Mitchell, Jarome Luai, and Ben Hunt have all demonstrated their scoring prowess in previous Origin appearances. Their performance in this match could significantly influence the outcome.

Given the facts, it’s a tough call, but the Blues seem to have a slight edge. Their formidable lineup, bolstered by the return of their star backline trio, could prove too much for the Maroons. However, Queensland’s history of defying the odds should not be overlooked. A realistic final score prediction would be a close game, perhaps 22-18 in favour of the Blues.

Betting Tip: Blues

Suggested Bet: Blues WINNING MARGIN 1-12


New South Wales Blues

The New South Wales Blues, one of the most successful teams in the State of Origin, are back for another crack at the coveted title. Under the stewardship of Brad Fittler, a decorated player turned coach, the Blues are chasing their fourth series success in the past six years​.

This week, the Blues renew their age-old hostilities with the Queensland Maroons on neutral territory in Adelaide. Fittler, who took over the reins in 2018, masterminded back-to-back victories in his first two seasons reigning in charge.

Despite a surprise upset in 2020, the Blues bounced back with a 2-1 triumph in 2021, reflecting their resilience and competitive spirit. However, the Maroons snatched victory last year, adding another thrilling chapter to this gripping rivalry​​.

In an unforseen blow, star centre Latrell Mitchell has been unfortunately ruled out of the opening game due to a calf injury sustained during training. Stephen Crichton will replace Mitchell in the starting line-up, with Matt Burton stepping in as the new 18th man​​.

This year’s Blues squad showcases a blend of experience and fresh talent. Debutantes Hudson Young, Tevita Pangai Junior, and Nicho Hynes are set to get their first taste of Origin in Adelaide. The Sharks superstar, Hynes, is anticipated to be brought into action around the 30-minute mark to try and exploit any weaknesses in the Maroons’ defence​.

Looking at the overall team composition, the Blues are featuring five players from the Panthers, including Jarome Luai, Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Liam Martin, and Brian To’o. Josh Addo-Carr, another key player, returns to the State of Origin fold and will line up on the wing.

In addition, Tyson Frizell from the Knights will be starting in his first Origin game since 2020. Apisai Koroisau has secured the hooker position over Damien Cook, and Tom Trbojevic makes a comeback in the centres after missing the 2022 series​​.

Despite the challenges, the Blues are determined to deliver a strong performance in the upcoming State of Origin series. Their journey in this tournament stands as a testament to their tenacity, skill, and unity. As they step onto the field this week, they carry with them the hopes and dreams of their fans. Here’s to a thrilling game of rugby ahead!

Queensland Maroons

The Queensland Maroons, under the seasoned leadership of Daly Cherry-Evans, are geared up to bring their A-game to this week’s State of Origin. Cherry-Evans, an experienced player, will proudly lead the Maroons in his 20th Origin match, a testament to his enduring skill and resilience on the rugby field​​.

Billy Slater, the Maroons coach, has put together a strong line-up for the match. Making his debut, Reece Walsh has been selected over Kalyn Ponga for the coveted No.1 jersey. The Maroons team is a diverse mix of talent from the Broncos and Cowboys, each contributing four players to the squad.

Among them are Selwyn Cobbo, Patrick Carrigan, Thomas Flegler, Val Holmes, Murray Taulagi, Tom Dearden, and Reuben Cotter​​.

David Fifita from the Titans will also be returning to the game, marking his first appearance since Game 2, 2021. Christian Welch, the Storm skipper, is back in the squad after missing last year’s series due to an injury. In a slight reshuffle of roles, Dragons skipper Ben Hunt is set to start as the hooker with Harry Grant from the Storm adding his strength from the bench​.

However, it’s not all smooth sailing for the Maroons. Felise Kaufusi, an enforcer from the Dolphins, will be missing this match as he faces suspension for a high tackle in Round 12. Nevertheless, the team remains focused and prepared for the challenge ahead.

The Maroons are known for their tenacity and teamwork, and with the guidance of Cherry-Evans and Slater, they are ready to give their best in the upcoming game.


State of Origin Team Lineups

QLD Maroons NWS Blues
Reece Walsh 1 Fullback James Tedesco
Selwyn Cobbo 2 Winger Brian To’o
Valentine Holmes 3 Centre Latrell Mitchell
Hamisco Tabuai-Fidow 4 Centre Tom Trbojevic
Murray Taulagi 5 Winger Josh Addo-Carr
Cameron Munster 6 Five-Eighth Jarome Luai
Daly Cherry-Evans 7 Halfback Nathan Cleary
Thomas Flegler 8 Prop Tevita Pangai Junior
Ben Hunt 9 Hooker Apisai Koroisau
Lindsay Collins 10 Prop Payne Haas
David Fifita 11 2nd Row Tyson Frizell
Tom Gilbert 12 2nd Row Hudson Young
Patrick Carrigan 13 Lock Isaah Yeo
Harry Grant 14 Interchange Junior Paulo
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 15 Interchange Cameron Murray
Reuben Cotter 16 Interchange Liam Martin
Jai Arrow 17 Interchange Nicholas Hynes
Tom Dearden 18 Replacement Stephen Crichton
Christian Welch 19 Reserve Stefano Utoikamanu

This Weeks NRL Multi

  • Dolphins
  • Eels
  • Warriors
  • Rabbitohs
  • Knights

Take Bet: $6.12 with  Ladbrokes

Check out all this weeks NRL Multi Tips on our Multi Bets Page.

Multi Bet Tips


State of Origin Odds

If you want to know what this week’s odds are don’t forget to check the State of Origin Odds page.

NRL Draw

Check the NRL Draw for upcoming NRL matches this season.

NRL Injury List

Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our NRL injury list.

Other Betting Tips

We don’t just do NRL tips; our experts also specialise in AFL betting and horse racing tips.

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Ben H
Ben Harris is the Communications Manager for KRUZEY, an AFL expert, and writer. He has one daughter that he loves dearly and four children's books... [Read full bio]

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