Week 1 delivered. Cowboys beat the Bulldogs 34-30 in a ripper. A 19-year-old named Kade Reed tore the Knights apart with a try and two assists as the Dragons won 28-18. Footy’s back and I’m already itching to get set on this weekend’s slate.
Seven games across three days. And here’s why I love pre-season markets. Bookmakers have zero 2026 data to work with. Coaches vary wildly in how seriously they take trials. Lines are soft because of it.
Your edge? Work out which squads have genuine NRL talent on the park versus which are running development teams. I’ve gone through every team list this week and the mismatches are obvious once you know where to look.
One rule for pre-season: 1-unit plays max. We’re hunting value, not certainty.
Weekend Best Bets
Todd Payten’s named a full-strength “Vegas Ready” side. Drinkwater, Dearden, Taumalolo, Cotter, Mahoney. The Panthers? Stars are resting; it’s a third-string squad led by Kurt Falls. This should be one-way traffic in the Mackay humidity.
The Bulldogs have gone nuclear with Crichton, Xerri, Burton, Galvin, and Kikau. The Knights are still sorting their halves partner for Dylan Brown. Continuity matters in February; I reckon the Dogs’ settled spine gives them the edge.
Full Match Previews
Raiders vs Storm (Fri 5:30pm) – Tip: Raiders (6.5/10)
The Raiders at their spiritual home with genuine NRL quality (Laurie, Nicholson, Pattie). Melbourne is resting their entire first-choice side. Storm kids are elite, but Raiders’ experience should get it done in Queanbeyan.
Warriors vs Sea Eagles (Sat 1:40pm) – Tip: Warriors (7/10)
Serious firepower in Napier: RTS, Capewell, Egan. Manly are fielding teenagers with a very green halves pairing. Pack size and NRL minutes win these games. Back the experience.
Wests Tigers vs Roosters (Sat 3:50pm) – Tip: Roosters (6/10)
Even rotated, the Roosters field serious pedigree (Butchers, Talau). Tigers are young with Jock Madden. Roosters’ defensive structures should hold up better in a scrappy contest.
Dragons vs Rabbitohs (Charity Shield) (Sat 8:10pm) – Tip: Dragons (7.5/10)
Near full-strength Vegas dress rehearsal from the Dragons (Gutherson, Cook, Holmes). They lead the pre-season ladder and want that $100k prize. Rabbits are development-focused here.
Sharks vs Eels (Sun 6:00pm) – Tip: Eels (6.5/10)
Sharks are missing six to the All Stars and Fitzgibbon is holding others back. Eels have named a stronger squad (Hopgood, Penisini, Iongi) and look more desperate to improve after 2025.
Round 1 Intel: What to Watch
- Cowboys’ spine: If Dearden, Drinkwater, and Mahoney click in Mackay, their premiership odds look tasty.
- Dylan Brown at Newcastle: The halves combination here tells us everything about the Knights’ 2026.
- Bulldogs’ dominance: If they dominate in Newcastle, $12 for the flag starts looking generous.
- Dragons’ new halves: If Atkinson and Flanagan click at WIN Stadium, their Vegas opener is suddenly very competitive.
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