St Kilda vs Richmond Prediction

There’s a huge gap between what the market thinks and what our numbers are showing. The bookies are pricing this like it’s nearly a walkover for the Saints, but our data paints it as a genuine contest.

If Richmond really have a 46.7% shot at winning, their true odds should be closer to $2.14, not the massive $4.40 currently on the board. That’s a massive edge and a cracking bit of value for punters backing the Tigers.

In summary: the edge is firmly with Richmond. While the market gives them just a 21.45% chance, our numbers suggest they’re right in this. At $4.40, there’s some serious value in backing the Tigers if our analysis holds up.

St Kilda have won the past few games at Marvel against the Tiges, however, if past scores are anything to go by, a +27.5 line in favour of the Tigers is a good bet considering how close this game is expected to be.

We still think the Saints will win, but it could easily be slightly over the 40+ so a line bet is the way to go… historically, they haven’t scored OVER 174.5 since 2022 so that is also a safe bet.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: St Kilda: 85.0, Richmond: 75.0 – (St Kilda by 10 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: St Kilda: 113.0, Richmond: 104.5 – (Richmond by 8.5 points)
• Average Winning Margin: St Kilda: 7.0, Richmond: 13.0 – (Richmond by 6 points)
• Average Losing Margin: St Kilda: 63.0, Richmond: 72.0 – (St Kilda more resilient by 9 points)
• HT/FT Double %: St Kilda: 50.0%, Richmond: 0.0% – (St Kilda by 50%)
• Highest Score For: St Kilda: 98, Richmond: 82 – (St Kilda by 16 points)
• Highest Score Against: St Kilda: 135, Richmond: 140 – (Richmond better by 5 points)
• Biggest Win: St Kilda: 7, Richmond: 13 – (Richmond by 6 points)
• Biggest Loss: St Kilda: 63, Richmond: 72 – (St Kilda more resilient by 9 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: St Kilda: 207, Richmond: 208 – (Richmond by 1 point)
• Lowest Total Match Score: St Kilda: 189, Richmond: 151 – (Richmond by 38 points)
• Goal Accuracy For %: St Kilda: 59.5%, Richmond: 62.9% – (Richmond by 3.4%)
• Goal Accuracy Against %: St Kilda: 65.4%, Richmond: 55.6% – (Richmond by 9.8%)
• Current Streak: St Kilda: W1, Richmond: L1 – (St Kilda momentum)
• Current Form: St Kilda: LW, Richmond: WL – (Even)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): St Kilda: 0.0%, Richmond: 0.0% – (Even)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): St Kilda: 100.0%, Richmond: 0.0% – (St Kilda by 100%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): St Kilda: 0.0%, Richmond: 50.0% – (Richmond by 50%)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: St Kilda won by 48 points (99–51) on 11th August 2024