AFL Finals Fixture
AFL Finals Week 1 Thursday, September 7 Odds by Collingwood…
Port Adelaide vs Richmond Prediction
Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers Predictions
The 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership Tips and Predictions for Round 2 has Port Adelaide vs Richmond kicking off right around the time you’ll be looking to start the BBQ. You can catch the game live on Kayo & Foxtel.
Port Adelaide vs Richmond
Saturday, March 22, 2026
4:15 pm @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Final Score Prediction
Power109 : 62
Tigers 
Win Percentages
Port Adelaide 60.4%
Richmond 39.6%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Port Adelaide Power set at $1.11, and $6.40 for the Richmond Tigers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Review
Richmond riding high after a stunning comeback win, and Port Adelaide looking to pick up the pieces after a horror start.
The Tigers produced a miracle in Round 1, erasing a 41-point deficit to shock Carlton 82-69 at the MCG. Jack Ross starred with 28 disposals, 591 metres gained, and 2 goals in what may have been the best game of his career.
Meanwhile, Port Adelaide suffered its worst loss since 2011, getting obliterated 136-45 by Collingwood. Their goal accuracy was a dismal 42.9%.
Despite their Round 1 struggles, Port enters as the favourite–they’ve won four straight against Richmond, including a 116-75 win at Adelaide Oval last year. However, the stats favour Richmond: they lead in scoring (82 to 45), points conceded (69 to 136), and goal accuracy (86.7% to 42.9%).
Opportunity Bet
Massive Discrepancy Alert!
- The bookies heavily favour Port Adelaide, giving them an 85.22% chance, while our analysis suggests they are only 60.4% likely to win.
- This means Richmond is hugely undervalued–the bookies give them only a 14.78% chance, while our numbers suggest they should be closer to 39.6%.
- At $6.40, Richmond presents a huge potential value play. If our analysis holds, their fair odds should be around $2.53, making this an enormous betting edge.
Final Take
Richmond at $6.40 is a massive value bet–the bookies may have completely mispriced them after seeing how they played against the Blues last week.
Port Adelaide’s odds are way too short based on our analysis, meaning they offer no value at $1.11.
This is a classic high-risk, high-reward situation–if our numbers are right, backing Richmond in this Port Adelaide vs Richmond game could be a huge winning play!
Suggested Betting Tip:
Port Adelaide -38.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes
H-2-H Bet:
Port Adelaide (NO VALUE) @ $1.11 with
Ladbrokes
Port Adelaide vs Richmond Head-to-Head Stats (2026 Season)
- Average Points For Per Match: Port Adelaide: 45.0, Richmond: 82.0 – (Richmond by 37 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Port Adelaide: 136.0, Richmond: 69.0 – (Richmond by 67 points)
- Average Winning Margin: Port Adelaide: N/A, Richmond: 13.0
- Average Losing Margin: Port Adelaide: 91.0, Richmond: N/A
- HT/FT Double %: Port Adelaide: 0.0%, Richmond: 0.0% – (Even)
- Highest Score For: Port Adelaide: 45, Richmond: 82 – (Richmond by 37 points)
- Highest Score Against: Port Adelaide: 136, Richmond: 69 – (Port Adelaide by 67 points)
- Biggest Win: Port Adelaide: N/A, Richmond: 13
- Biggest Loss: Port Adelaide: 91, Richmond: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: Port Adelaide: 181, Richmond: 151 – (Port Adelaide by 30 points)
- Lowest Total Match Score: Port Adelaide: 181, Richmond: 151 – (Port Adelaide by 30 points)
- Goal Accuracy For %: Port Adelaide: 42.9%, Richmond: 86.7% – (Richmond by 43.8%)
- Goal Accuracy Against %: Port Adelaide: 70.0%, Richmond: 42.9% – (Richmond by 27.1%)
- Current Streak: Port Adelaide: L1, Richmond: W1 – (Richmond streak 1)
- Current Form: Port Adelaide: L, Richmond: W – (Richmond by 1 win)
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Port Adelaide: 0.0%, Richmond: 0.0% – (Even)
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Port Adelaide: 0.0%, Richmond: 0.0% – (Even)
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Port Adelaide: 0.0%, Richmond: 100.0% – (Richmond by 100%)
2026 AFL Premiership Season – Round 2 Schedule
- Thursday, March 20, 2026
- 7:30 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Footscray vs Collingwood
- Friday, March 21, 2026
- 7:40 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Essendon vs Adelaide Crows
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 1:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Port Adelaide vs Richmond
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 4:15 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
St Kilda vs Geelong Cats
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 7:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 1:10 pm AEDT @ Gabba, Brisbane
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 3:20 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Fremantle vs Sydney Swans
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 6:10 pm AEDT @ Optus Stadium, Perth
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