Hawthorn vs West Coast Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 7

Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles Predictions

Game 9 of Round 7 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Hawthorn vs West Coast on April 27 at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 27, 2025

4:45 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Hawks

112 : 54

Eagles

Win Percentages

Hawthorn 67.26%

West Coast 37.74%

Hawthorn

West Coast

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Sterling Parker had the head to head for the Hawthorn Hawks set at $1.04, and $11.00 for the West Coast Eagles, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Hawks 91.35%
Eagles 8.65%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies are treating this one like a sure thing, giving the Hawks a whopping 91.35% chance of taking it out. But our model sees it a little differently, Hawthorn are still firm favourites, but only at 67.26%.

That opens the door for a huge bit of value on the Eagles. The market has basically written them off at just 8.65%, but our analysis gives them a far more competitive 37.74%.

If we’re right, West Coast should be priced closer to $2.65, not the massive $11.00 that’s currently on offer. That’s an enormous value gap, making the Eagles a wild-card punt worth considering if you’re chasing long odds.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Power rankings tell a similar story, Hawthorn are better, but West Coast aren’t as far behind as the market thinks:

Overall Power Ranking: Hawks 9th vs Eagles 18th
Score Rank: Hawks 14th vs Eagles 10th
Balanced Power Score: Hawks 15th vs Eagles 16th
Points For Rank: Hawks 8th vs Eagles 17th
Points Against Rank: Hawks 5th vs Eagles 17th
Win % Rank: Hawks 1st vs Eagles 15th
Total Power Rank Score: Hawks 8.67 vs Eagles 15.50

What to do?

Hawthorn clearly hold the advantage in recent form, but West Coast’s scoring numbers are actually stronger than expected, especially for a side sitting at $11 odds.

Hawthorn are deserved favourites and should win more often than not, but not at a 91% clip. There’s a massive discrepancy between the market and reality here, and that makes the West Coast Eagles a high-risk, high-reward value bet at $11.00 (though we definitely don’t suggest it).

The one thing about this game is that Hawthorn have been playing significantly more difficult teams so far this season in comparison to the Eagles, they both tend to score low on average, the hawks have not yet really had a chance to play teams of such low calibre, a line of 55.5 might seem steep considering the Hawks average points for is only 27.5 points higher than the Eagles, it is pretty safe to say that will be significantly higher this game.

Go the Hawks -55.5, there’s a solid chance they will absolutely destroy the Eagles this week.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Hawks -55.5 @ $1.89 with
Sterling Parker

H-2-H Bet:

Hawthorn @ $1.01 with
Sterling Parker

Winning Margin Bet:

Hawthorn 40+ @ $1.32 with
Sterling Parker

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 179.5 @ $1.90 with
Sterling Parker

Hawthorn vs West Coast SGM