St Kilda vs Geelong Tips Prediction
St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats Predictions The last game…
Essendon vs Adelaide Prediction
Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows Predictions
The first Saturday game of Round 2 has Essendon vs Adelaide at the MCG. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel & Nine, & Channel 7.
Essendon vs Adelaide
Saturday, March 22, 2026
1:20 pm @ The MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Bombers96 : 101
Crows 
Win Percentages
Essendon 41.5%
Adelaide 58.5%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Essendon Bombers set at $2.20, and $1.67 for the Adelaide Crows, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Review
The Bombers went down to Hawthorn in their season opener, despite leading nearly every major stat–+35 disposals, +24 contested possessions, +19 clearances–but couldn’t convert dominance into a win. To make matters worse, they lost two key players: Jordan Ridley (concussion) and Kyle Langford (hamstring).
Adelaide, on the other hand, couldn’t have asked for a better start. They smashed St Kilda 135-72, with Izak Rankine putting on a clinic–28 disposals, 16 contested, 7 clearances and 2 goals. He missed their game against Essendon last year, but the Crows still edged that one 115-113 thanks to Josh Rachele’s late heroics.
The stats favour the Crows: they lead in average points for (135 to 85), points against (72 to 111), and goal accuracy (72.4% to 52.2%). But Essendon will be fired up, and they’ve had recent successes against Adelaide while playing in Melbourne.
Opportunity Bet
Unlike other matchups, the bookmakers’ implied probabilities are very close to our own analysis.
- The Bombers are slightly overvalued by the bookies (43.16% vs. 41.5%).
- The Crows are slightly undervalued, with their implied probability at 56.84%, while our numbers suggest they should be at 58.5%.
This means there’s no major betting edge on either side, as the odds are fairly in line with our predictions.
Final Take
No strong value play here–the bookies have priced this one pretty accurately.
If anything, Adelaide at $1.67 might have a slight edge, but not enough to make it a standout value bet.
For this Essendon vs Adelaide matchup, it’s probably best to look at alternative markets like line betting or player props!
Suggested Betting Tip:
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25 with
Ladbrokes
H-2-H Bet:
Adelaide (NO VALUE) @ $1.04 with
Ladbrokes
Essendon vs Adelaide Head-to-Head Stats (2026 Season)
- Average Points For Per Match: Essendon: 85.0, Adelaide: 135.0 – (Adelaide by 50 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Essendon: 111.0, Adelaide: 72.0 – (Adelaide by 39 points)
- Average Winning Margin: Essendon: N/A, Adelaide: 63.0
- Average Losing Margin: Essendon: 26.0, Adelaide: N/A
- HT/FT Double %: Essendon: 0.0%, Adelaide: 100.0% – (Adelaide by 100%)
- Highest Score For: Essendon: 85, Adelaide: 135 – (Adelaide by 50 points)
- Highest Score Against: Essendon: 111, Adelaide: 72 – (Essendon by 39 points)
- Biggest Win: Essendon: N/A, Adelaide: 63
- Biggest Loss: Essendon: 26, Adelaide: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: Essendon: 196, Adelaide: 207 – (Adelaide by 11 points)
- Lowest Total Match Score: Essendon: 196, Adelaide: 207 – (Adelaide by 11 points)
- Goal Accuracy For %: Essendon: 52.2%, Adelaide: 72.4% – (Adelaide by 20.2%)
- Goal Accuracy Against %: Essendon: 68.0%, Adelaide: 50.0% – (Adelaide by 18%)
- Current Streak: Essendon: L1, Adelaide: W1 – (Adelaide streak 1)
- Current Form: Essendon: L, Adelaide: W – (Adelaide by 1 win)
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Essendon: 0.0%, Adelaide: 0.0% – (Even)
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Essendon: 0.0%, Adelaide: 100.0% – (Adelaide by 100%)
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Essendon: 0.0%, Adelaide: 0.0% – (Even)
2026 AFL Premiership Season – Round 2 Schedule
- Thursday, March 20, 2026
- 7:30 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Footscray vs Collingwood
- Friday, March 21, 2026
- 7:40 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Essendon vs Adelaide Crows
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 1:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 4:15 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
St Kilda vs Geelong Cats
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 7:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 1:10 pm AEDT @ Gabba, Brisbane
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 3:20 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Fremantle vs Sydney Swans
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 6:10 pm AEDT @ Optus Stadium, Perth
Related:
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