Collingwood vs Essendon Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 7

Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers Predictions

Game 2 of Round 7 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Collingwood vs Essendon on April 25 at the MCG on Friday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Friday, April 25, 2025

3:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Magpies

93 : 79

Bombers

Win Percentages

Collingwood 59.70%

Essendon 40.30%

Collingwood

Essendon

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Collingwood Magpies set at $1.23, and $4.10 for the Essendon Bombers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Collingwood 76.92%
Essendon 23.08%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies are big on the Pies, giving them a whopping 76.92% chance of getting up. But our numbers show it’s not quite that clear cut, Collingwood are ahead, but only at 59.70%.

That leaves the Bombers with some real value. They’re being priced like they’ve barely got a shot, with just 23.08% implied by the market, but our model gives them a much stronger 40.30%.

Based on that, Essendon should be closer to $2.48, yet Unibet is offering $4.10. That’s a huge value gap, and one of the strongest underdog opportunities of the round.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Now this is where things get spicy, because the Bombers actually come out ahead across the power metrics:

Overall Power Ranking: Essendon 1st vs Collingwood 16th
Score Rank: Pies 6th vs Bombers 9th
Balanced Power Score: Pies 7th vs Bombers 5th
Points For Rank: Pies 5th vs Bombers 10th
Points Against Rank: Pies 2nd vs Bombers 6th
Win % Rank: Pies 1st vs Bombers 3rd
Total Power Rank Score: Bombers 5.67 vs Pies 6.17

What to do?

Essendon’s been rock solid and more consistent across overall form and balance metrics. The Pies have the public backing, but the Bombers have the stats to make it interesting.

Collingwood are rightfully favourites, but there’s a big mismatch between market perception and real numbers. Essendon are being undervalued in a big way, and with $4.10 on offer, there’s a massive edge to be had for those keen to back the red and black.

It is doubtful they will win but I suggest taking the Bombers for +26.5 (that’s what I’m doing).

Suggested Betting Tip:

Essendon +26.5 @ $1.91 with
Unibet

H-2-H Bet:

Collingwood @ $1.23 with
Unibet

Winning Margin Bet:

Collingwood 1-39 @ $1.98 with
Unibet

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 161.5 @ $1.90 with
Unibet

Collingwood vs Essendon SGM