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Collingwood vs Essendon Prediction
Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers Predictions
Game 2 of Round 7 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Collingwood vs Essendon on April 25 at the MCG on Friday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7.
Friday, April 25, 2026
3:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Magpies93 : 79
Bombers 
Win Percentages
Collingwood 59.70%
Essendon 40.30%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Collingwood Magpies set at $1.23, and $4.10 for the Essendon Bombers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookies are big on the Pies, giving them a whopping 76.92% chance of getting up. But our numbers show it’s not quite that clear cut, Collingwood are ahead, but only at 59.70%.
That leaves the Bombers with some real value. They’re being priced like they’ve barely got a shot, with just 23.08% implied by the market, but our model gives them a much stronger 40.30%.
Based on that, Essendon should be closer to $2.48, yet Unibet is offering $4.10. That’s a huge value gap, and one of the strongest underdog opportunities of the round.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Now this is where things get spicy, because the Bombers actually come out ahead across the power metrics:
- Overall Power Ranking: Essendon 1st vs Collingwood 16th
- Score Rank: Pies 6th vs Bombers 9th
- Balanced Power Score: Pies 7th vs Bombers 5th
- Points For Rank: Pies 5th vs Bombers 10th
- Points Against Rank: Pies 2nd vs Bombers 6th
- Win % Rank: Pies 1st vs Bombers 3rd
- Total Power Rank Score: Bombers 5.67 vs Pies 6.17
What to do?
Essendon’s been rock solid and more consistent across overall form and balance metrics. The Pies have the public backing, but the Bombers have the stats to make it interesting.
Collingwood are rightfully favourites, but there’s a big mismatch between market perception and real numbers. Essendon are being undervalued in a big way, and with $4.10 on offer, there’s a massive edge to be had for those keen to back the red and black.
It is doubtful they will win but I suggest taking the Bombers for +26.5 (that’s what I’m doing).
Suggested Betting Tip:
Essendon +26.5 @ $1.91 with
Unibet
H-2-H Bet:
Collingwood @ $1.23 with
Unibet
Winning Margin Bet:
Collingwood 1-39 @ $1.98 with
Unibet
OVER/UNDER Bet:
OVER 161.5 @ $1.90 with
Unibet
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Collingwood by 4.2
- Average Points Against Per Match: Collingwood by 26.8
- Power Rank: Collingwood by 9
- Average Winning Margin: Essendon by 2173
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Essendon by 12
- Win Percentage: Collingwood by 23%
- Average Opponent Rank: Collingwood by 3
- Average Opponent Win Percentage: Collingwood by 2%
- Average Opponent Points For: Collingwood by 4
- Highest Score For: Collingwood by 36
- Highest Score Against: Collingwood by 57
- Highest Total Match Score: Essendon by 74
- Lowest Total Match Score: Collingwood by 23
- Adjusted Points For: Essendon by 12
- Adjusted Points Against: Collingwood by 34
- True Power Score (Weighted): Collingwood by 8.6
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 166
- Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout
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