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Carlton vs Hawthorn Prediction
Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks Predictions
The 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership Tips and Predictions for Round 2 begins on March 20, with Carlton vs Hawthorn at the MCG on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7.
Carlton vs Hawthorn
Thursday, March 20, 2026
7:30 pm @ The MCG, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Blues70 : 98
Hawks 
Win Percentages
Carlton 40%
Hawthorn 60%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Carlton Blues set at $2.80, and $1.44 for the Hawthorn Hawks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Carlton will be looking for redemption when they take on a red-hot Hawthorn side at the MCG this Thursday night. The Blues are coming off a frustrating 82-69 loss to Richmond, a game where they led by 41 points midway through the second quarter but couldn’t hold on. Despite dominating key stats like disposals (+53), inside 50s (+25), and contested possessions (+21), they couldn’t convert their control into a win. On the other hand, Hawthorn kicked off their season with a strong 111-85 victory over Essendon, despite trailing in disposals (-35), clearances (-19), and contested possessions (-24).
The Hawks have been dominant at the MCG, winning seven straight games, including a crushing 112-38 victory over Carlton last season. In that match, Dylan Moore was outstanding with 29 disposals, 578 metres gained, 15 marks, and 11 score involvements. Heading into this game, the odds favour Hawthorn ($1.44 vs. $2.80 for Carlton), giving them a 60% win probability compared to the Blues’ 40%.
Opportunity Bet
The bookmakers are undervaluing Carlton by pricing them at a 33.96% probability, whereas our analysis suggests they actually have a 40% chance.
This discrepancy creates a potential betting edge on Carlton. If our analysis holds, Carlton’s fair odds should be around $2.50, but the bookies are offering $2.80–meaning there could be some value in backing Carlton at those odds.
On the other hand, Hawthorn is slightly overvalued by the bookmakers, with their implied probability set at 66.04%, while our numbers suggest they should be closer to 60%.
Final Take
Carlton presents a potential value bet at $2.80, as the bookmakers may be underestimating their actual chances.
Hawthorn is slightly overpriced, meaning the odds may not offer much value.
If you’re looking for a sharp play for Carlton vs Hawthorn, backing Carlton at $2.80 could be profitable.
Suggested Betting Tip:
Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.10 with
Ladbrokes
H-2-H Bet:
Hawthorn (NO VALUE) @ $1.44 with
Ladbrokes
Carlton vs Hawthorn Head-to-Head Stats (2026 Season)
- Average Points For Per Match: Carlton: 69.0, Hawthorn: 103.5 – (Hawthorn by 34.5 points)
- Average Points Against Per Match: Carlton: 82.0, Hawthorn: 80.5 – (Hawthorn by 1.5 points)
- Average Winning Margin: Carlton: N/A, Hawthorn: 23.0
- Average Losing Margin: Carlton: 13.0, Hawthorn: N/A
- HT/FT Double %: Carlton: 0.0%, Hawthorn: 100.0% – (Hawthorn by 100%)
- Highest Score For: Carlton: 69, Hawthorn: 111 – (Hawthorn by 42 points)
- Highest Score Against: Carlton: 82, Hawthorn: 85 – (Hawthorn by 3 points)
- Biggest Win: Carlton: N/A, Hawthorn: 26
- Biggest Loss: Carlton: 13, Hawthorn: N/A
- Highest Total Match Score: Carlton: 151, Hawthorn: 196 – (Hawthorn by 45 points)
- Lowest Total Match Score: Carlton: 151, Hawthorn: 172 – (Hawthorn by 21 points)
- Goal Accuracy For %: Carlton: 42.9%, Hawthorn: 66.0% – (Hawthorn by 23.1%)
- Goal Accuracy Against %: Carlton: 86.7%, Hawthorn: 56.1% – (Hawthorn by 30.6%)
- Current Streak: Carlton: L1, Hawthorn: W2 – (Hawthorn streak 2)
- Current Form: Carlton: L, Hawthorn: WW – (Hawthorn by 2 wins)
- Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Carlton: 100.0%, Hawthorn: 0.0% – (Hawthorn by 100%)
- Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Carlton: 0.0%, Hawthorn: 100.0% – (Hawthorn by 100%)
- Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Carlton: 0.0%, Hawthorn: 0.0% – (Even)
2026 AFL Premiership Season – Round 2 Schedule
Carlton vs Hawthorn
- Thursday, March 20, 2026
- 7:30 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Footscray vs Collingwood
- Friday, March 21, 2026
- 7:40 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
Essendon vs Adelaide Crows
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 1:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 4:15 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
St Kilda vs Geelong Cats
- Saturday, March 22, 2026
- 7:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 1:10 pm AEDT @ Gabba, Brisbane
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 3:20 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Fremantle vs Sydney Swans
- Sunday, March 23, 2026
- 6:10 pm AEDT @ Optus Stadium, Perth
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