Fremantle vs Carlton Prediction

Can the Blues Keep Their Slim Finals Hopes Alive in Perth?

Home • $1.15

Away • $5.50

TBC • Optus Stadium • TBC

So Carlton’s finals hopes are hanging by a thread thinner than a West Australian mining permit, and now they’ve got to head west to face a Fremantle side that’s suddenly remembered how to win footy games.

I’ve been tracking both teams’ scoring patterns over the past month, and what I’m seeing has me reaching for the unders faster than a Docker fan reaching for their membership renewal.

The Dockers thumped West Coast by 49 points last week in the Derby, putting up 126 points in the process. But here’s the thing – that was against the Eagles, who are leaking points like a sieve. Carlton?

They’re coming off a 24-point loss to Hawthorn where they managed just 61 points, their fourth loss in five games. When these two met back in Round 6, Freo got the job done by 11 points in a low-scoring affair at Marvel Stadium.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, three markets really stand out to me. The head-to-head odds seem way too short on Freo given Carlton’s desperate need for wins, but it’s the total points line that’s got me most interested.

Both teams have been trending under recently, and with Carlton’s attack sputtering badly, I’m backing another grinder.

BEST BET

Total Under 158.5 Points

$1.88

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VALUE BET

Carlton +31.5

$1.90

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SMART HEDGE

Fremantle 1-39

$3.20

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Look, I’ll be honest – my model’s spitting out numbers that suggest the bookies might have overcooked Freo’s dominance here. Yes, Carlton have been ordinary, but a 31.5-point line?

That feels generous given the Blues’ desperation and their solid record at Optus Stadium in recent years.

Our Data Says: Fremantle 94, Carlton 72 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Fremantle a 57% win chance, Carlton 43%

Bookmakers have Fremantle at $1.15 (87% implied) vs Carlton at $5.50 (18% implied)

The Market Edge: Carlton offers massive value – our 43% vs market’s 18% implied chance suggests the Blues are being drastically underrated

Our Prediction

FRE 94 | CAR 72

Win Probability

FRE 57% | CAR 43%

Market Edge

25%

on Carlton

FORM LINE

Fremantle’s recent form reads like a team hitting their straps at the right time – four wins from their last five, with their only loss a narrow 11-point defeat to Sydney at the SCG.

They’re averaging 89 points per game in this stretch, well up on their season average of 79. The defensive side has been even more impressive, conceding just 76.4 points per game over the same period.

Carlton’s form line? It’s uglier than a Ross Lyon press conference after a loss. One win from their last five, and they’re averaging a miserable 65 points per game in that stretch.

That’s a massive 17 points below their season average, and they’ve been on the wrong end of some hefty margins – 56 points to Collingwood, 50 to Adelaide.

The 24-point loss to Hawthorn last week was actually their best defensive effort in a month.

Fremantle Dockers

WWWLW

Four wins from their last five, with their only loss a narrow 11-point defeat to Sydney at the SCG.
They’re averaging 89 points per game in this stretch, well up on their season average of 79.
The defensive side has been even more impressive, conceding just 76.4 points per game over the same period.

Carlton Blues

LLLWL

One win from their last five, averaging a miserable 65 points per game in that stretch.
17 points below their season average, with hefty losses of 56 to Collingwood and 50 to Adelaide.
The 24-point loss to Hawthorn last week was actually their best defensive effort in a month.

KEY STATS

The numbers that really jump out at me here are the scoring averages – Fremantle averaging 12.5 goals per game at home versus Carlton’s 10.9 on the road.

But dig deeper and you’ll see Carlton’s recent road scoring has been woeful, managing just 8.8 goals per game in their last three away trips.

That disposal efficiency gap is telling too – Freo at 73.4% versus Carlton’s 70.2% suggests the Dockers will make better use of their chances.

Both teams are pretty even in the clearance battle (Freo 38.1, Carlton 39.3), but it’s what happens after the clearance that matters.

Fremantle are generating 52.5 inside 50s per game at home, and with Carlton’s backline looking shaky, that could spell trouble for the visitors.

GOALS PER GAME

Fremantle
12.5

Carlton
10.9

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY

Fremantle
73.4

Carlton
70.2

CLEARANCES

Carlton
39.3

Fremantle
38.1

THE FINAL WORD

Everything points to a Fremantle win here, but at $1.15 they’re offering about as much value as a $15 stadium beer.

Carlton’s form has been diabolical, but they’re still mathematically alive for finals and will throw everything at this.

In my experience, desperate teams in late-season games often keep things closer than expected, especially when the favourite might have one eye on September.

Give me the unders as my best bet – with Carlton’s attack misfiring and Freo likely to control the tempo at home, this has all the makings of a defensive slog that lands well under that 158.5 total.

LOCK IT IN: Total Under 158.5 Points @ $1.88

Carlton’s attack is sputtering, and Fremantle will control the tempo at home – expect another low-scoring grinder.

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