Super Bowl LX: Why Seattle’s Defense is the Deciding Factor
I’ve been tracking these two teams all postseason, and the numbers are telling a very clear story for Super Bowl LX. Our model is projecting a Seattle Seahawks 29-24 victory over the New England Patriots, and frankly, the playoff data makes this an easy call to get behind.
The Patriots may have had the NFL’s best offense during the regular season, but they’ve looked like a different team in the playoffs. New England’s offense has fallen off a cliff, averaging just 18 points per game in their three playoff matchups. That’s the fourth-fewest points for a team entering the Super Bowl and a massive red flag against an elite opponent.
You can’t bring a struggling offense to a gunfight with the #1 ranked defense in the NFL. Seattle allowed the fewest points, fewest total yards, and had the best run defense in the league this season.
They have absolutely dominated their playoff opponents. History also backs this up, as the Seahawks have won 4 of their last 5 games against the Patriots. When one team is firing on all cylinders and the other is sputtering, you have to trust the more consistent unit.
Here’s what this means for your bet. Our model predicts a 5-point win for the Seahawks, which lines up nicely against the current spread.
- Our Model’s Spread: Seahawks -5.0
- Current Market Spread: Seahawks -4.5
- Edge Calculation: 5.0 (Model) – 4.5 (Market) = +0.5 points
Bottom Line: While it’s a small edge, the overwhelming defensive mismatch points in one direction.
Our Betting Prediction
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