Game 5 of Round 18 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on July 6 features the Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs at 4 Pines Park on Sunday afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Channel 9, & 9NOW. 🏉🔥
Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Predictions
Sunday, July 6, 2025
4:05pm @ 4 Pines Park, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
Sea Eagles
Rabbitohs
The Northern Beaches fortress hosts a classic rivalry clash as Manly welcome the struggling Rabbitohs in what shapes as another potential boilover.
Despite the bookies expecting a comfortable home win, our model sees this as a genuine 50/50 contest that could easily swing either way.
The pride of South Sydney won’t go down without a fight in what promises to be a defensive struggle.
Win Percentages
60.76%
39.24%
The Market Assessment
Here we go again – another case where the bookies and our model are miles apart. Manly are $1.33 favourites with a 9.5-point start.
But with our predicted margin of just 5 points and a “toss up” confidence rating, the Rabbitohs at $3.30 scream value.
This is becoming a theme this round – the market is overreacting to recent form.
Why Souths Can Spring The Upset
Don’t be fooled by ladder positions – this is a rivalry where form goes out the window.
The Rabbitohs have been competitive in defeat and are due for a breakthrough performance.
When our model rates something as a “toss up” despite lopsided odds, it’s time to pay attention.
Head-to-Head Analysis
The statistics reveal why this rivalry remains so competitive:
- Power Rankings: Manly 8th vs Souths 17th – but rankings mean little in derbies
- Attack: Both teams averaging similar points
- Defence: Manly slightly better but both vulnerable
- Recent H2H: Always close regardless of ladder positions
- 4 Pines Factor: Manly strong at home but Souths love the spoiler role
Game Style Prediction: Low-scoring defensive battle
Expected Total: 41 points
Our Betting Strategy
Smart Money: Rabbitohs +9.5
Rabbitohs +9.5 @ $1.95
Getting nearly 10 points in a game we predict will be decided by 5? This is outstanding value that smart punters won’t miss.
The Rivalry Factor
This is one of rugby league’s fiercest rivalries, where passion often trumps form.
The Rabbitohs have been building towards a performance and what better stage than against their old foes?
Key Battle: The forward packs will set the tone. Whichever team dominates the middle will control this low-scoring affair.
The Bottom Line
When the bookies and our model disagree this much, opportunity knocks.
The Rabbitohs with a 9.5-point start is the play, while those chasing value should strongly consider the upset at $3.30.
In a rivalry where anything can happen, back the team getting the points.
Remember to gamble responsibly.
Related:
NRL Draw
Check the NRL Draw for upcoming NRL matches this season.
NRL Injury List
Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our NRL injury list.
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