Roosters vs Rabbitohs Prediction

Sydney Roosters vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Predictions

Friday, March 13, 2026

8:00pm AEDT @ Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Roosters

27 : 13

Rabbitohs

The Friday night Sydney derby.

Rivalry games always carry some unpredictability, and I respect that.

But the data here is pointing pretty firmly in one direction – and it’s not South Sydney’s.

A 14-point margin and 69% confidence is about as clear a signal as I’ll give for a derby.

When the numbers are this lopsided between crosstown rivals, I take notice.

The Numbers That Matter

Based on last 5 games of 2025

That defensive number is what jumps out at me.

The Roosters were conceding just 14 points per game through the back end of 2025.

That’s elite. Meanwhile the Rabbitohs were shipping 26 per game – nearly double.

Here’s the full picture when you crunch it: the Roosters’ attack (26.0 PPG) versus the Rabbitohs’ defence (conceding 26.0) suggests Sydney score around their average.

But flip it – the Roosters’ defence (14.0 conceding) versus the Rabbitohs’ attack (20.0 PPG) suggests South Sydney score well below theirs.

That asymmetry is where the 14-point margin comes from.

The power ranking gap tells the same story.

#4 vs #12 is an 8-spot difference – significant in any analysis.

The Derby Discount

Every time I do a derby prediction, someone in the comments reminds me that form goes out the window in a grudge match.

Fair enough – there’s truth to that.

Rivalry games do compress margins. Emotion lifts the underdog.

But here’s my counter: the Roosters copped a 42-18 flogging at the hands of the Warriors in Round 1 – that’s a confidence hit walking into a derby.

The Rabbitohs, on the other hand, put 40 points on the Dolphins and will arrive at Allianz with some genuine momentum.

I’ll give South Sydney credit for that. But one good result against a Dolphins side that’s nowhere near the top eight doesn’t close an 8-spot power ranking gap or fix a defence conceding 26 per game.

The underlying data still points clearly to Sydney.

I’m applying a small derby discount – maybe 3–4 points off the predicted margin – but even at 10 points, the Roosters cover the -1.5 line with room to spare.

Best Bets

One bet this game, and I’m comfortable with it.

The Roosters -1.5 at $1.91 is essentially even money on a team the data says should win by around 14.

Even with a generous derby discount applied, the Roosters still cover a -1.5 line with plenty to spare.

Here’s the edge calculation: if I think the Roosters win this by 4+ points around 65% of the time, $1.91 implies a break-even of 52.4%.

That’s a +12.6% edge. For a derby, that’s a number worth backing.

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