Eels vs Sea Eagles Prediction

Game 2 of Round 12 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on May 23 features the Eels vs Sea Eagles at CommBank Stadium on Friday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Channel 9, & 9NOW. 🏉🔥

Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles Predictions

Friday, May 23, 2025

8:00 pm @ CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Eels

18 : 25

Sea Eagles

Win Percentages

Eels 38.08%

Sea Eagles 61.92%

Eels

Sea Eagles

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Parramatta Eels set at $2.70, and $1.46 for the Manly Sea Eagles, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Eels 35.10%
Sea Eagles 64.90%

The Betting Edge

The bookies are leaning heavily towards the Sea Eagles in this one, giving them a 64.90% chance of winning based on the odds of $1.46. But according to our own breakdown, Manly’s win probability sits at 61.92%. Not a massive gap, but it does show they might be just a touch overrated by the market.

On the flip side, the Eels are paying $2.70, which gives them an implied probability of 35.10%—yet our analysis suggests they’ve actually got a 38.08% shot at pulling off the win. That small bump creates a little betting edge in favour of Parramatta.

If our numbers are on the money, the Eels are slightly undervalued here. The true odds based on our model should be closer to $2.63. That might not scream massive value, but for punters looking for small edges to grind out profits, it’s definitely worth a second look.

In short, the value play, sits with the Eels. Their chances are a bit better than what the bookies are giving them credit for, making that $2.70 a bit more attractive than it first looks.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Here’s how the two teams compare based on the latest performance metrics:

Eels vs Sea Eagles Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Sea Eagles by 6.9
Average Points Against Per Match: Sea Eagles by 7
Power Rank: Sea Eagles by 13
Average Winning Margin: Sea Eagles by 8
SoS Adjusted Points For: Sea Eagles by 4
Win Percentage: Sea Eagles by 20%
Average Opponent Rank: Sea Eagles by 5
Average Opponent Win %: Sea Eagles by 7%
Average Opponent Points For: Eels by 4
Highest Score For: Sea Eagles by 4
Highest Score Against: Sea Eagles by 8
Highest Total Match Score: Eels by 2
Lowest Total Match Score: Eels by 6
Adjusted Points For: Sea Eagles by 4
Adjusted Points Against: Sea Eagles by 3
True Power Score (Weighted): Sea Eagles by 9.4
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 45.7
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Eels: 11, Sea Eagles: 7 – (Sea Eagles by 4)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Eels: 11.17, Sea Eagles: 5.33 – (Sea Eagles by 5.84)

Over/Under Tempo: Moderately low tempo expected; points could be limited by game pace.

Game Style Prediction: Likely blowout. Expect dominant performance by one side with minimal overall scoring.

What to do?

Odds are better for the eels than the odds suggest, however, it is unlikely they will pull of a win. Take the UNDER 46.5 for more value than Sea Eagles on the nose.

Looking at multis go the Sea Eagles 1-12, Sea Eagles -6.5, and the UNDER 46.5 for $10.94 with Unibet as shown below.