Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL matchup prediction graphic

Buccaneers vs Steelers Prediction

Ben Harris
14 October 2026

I have the Steelers winning, but only by a point, and the bookies want 2.5 of them. That puts my money on the Buccaneers with the points, and on a total that looks far too low.

NFL Week 6 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
TB
TB
$2.19
Monday, October 19 • 4:00am AEDT
22 : 23
Raymond James Stadium
PIT
PIT
$1.68
Steelers by 1 point
Model Predicted Margin
Steelers by 1
Current Market
Steelers -2.5
1.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
LINEBuccaneers +2.5

$1.95

TOTALOver 39.5

$1.89

MULTIBuccaneers +2.5 & Over 39.5

$3.69

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Odds correct at time of posting

The Steelers are 2.5 point favourites over the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium after a 34 to 22 win over the Colts. I think this is a one score game with more points in it than the market believes.

The Buccaneers are 1-4, but they finally won last week, 24 to 16 over the Cowboys, and they covered as 9.5 point outsiders doing it. That is not a side that rolls over.

I make it Steelers 23 to 22. I still think the Steelers win this, but giving 2.5 needs a three point win and I have one, so the money goes on the Buccaneers at $1.95.

The Buccaneers are conceding 22.4 points a game through five games, and a total of 39.5 asks both sides to play well under their usual output. I get to 45, so the overs at $1.89 are my strongest opinion here.

Nobody has filed a final injury report for this one yet; that happens Saturday morning our time. The Steelers attack is the part I need healthy for the overs, more than anything on the Buccaneers side. If their defence is missing pieces, the overs only look better.

Buccaneers vs Steelers Form Guide

Points per game
TB20.0

PIT22.2

Points conceded per game
TB22.4

PIT21.8

Offensive success rate
TB40.7%

PIT40.8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LLLLW
  • WK 5: W 24-16 @ Cowboys
  • WK 4: L 14-17 vs Packers
  • WK 3: L 16-23 vs Vikings
  • WK 2: L 19-23 vs Browns
  • WK 1: L 27-33 @ Bengals

Season to date, weeks 1-5.

Pittsburgh Steelers
WLWLW
  • WK 5: W 34-22 vs Colts
  • WK 4: L 24-27 @ Browns
  • WK 3: W 30-27 vs Bengals
  • WK 2: L 3-20 @ Patriots
  • WK 1: W 20-13 vs Falcons

Season to date, weeks 1-5.

Buccaneers vs Steelers Tip

I have the Steelers by a point, so the Buccaneers getting 2.5 are my side of the line.

Ben’s Verdict

Close game, low total, and a market treating it as a grind. I want the Buccaneers with the points and the overs.

Our Bets
LINE   Buccaneers +2.5$1.95
TOTAL   Over 39.5$1.89
MULTI   Buccaneers +2.5 & Over 39.5$3.69

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Up Next in the NFL

Key Facts

MatchTampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers
DateMonday, October 19
Kick-off4:00am AEDT
VenueRaymond James Stadium
RoundNFL Week 6
StatusScheduled
Our TipI have the Steelers by a point, so the Buccaneers getting 2.5 are my side of the line.
Predicted ScoreBuccaneers 22 – Steelers 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers FAQs

Who will win Buccaneers vs Steelers?

I have the Steelers by a point, 23 to 22. They are 3-2 and the better record, but there is very little between these two.

Is there value on the Buccaneers vs Steelers line?

Yes, the Buccaneers getting 2.5 at $1.95. I have a one point game, so the points do the work.

What’s the total for Buccaneers vs Steelers?

The bookies have 39.5 and I get to 45. That is the biggest gap in this game, and the overs at $1.89 are a bet.

Who are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing next week?

The Buccaneers travel to play the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on Monday 26 October (AEDT) in NFL Week 7.

Who are the Pittsburgh Steelers playing next week?

The Steelers travel to play the New Orleans Saints at Stade de France on Monday 26 October (AEDT) in NFL Week 7.

Author Ben Harris

Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly NFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness. A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy. Connect on LinkedIn Email Contact