AFL Betting Tips & Predictions – Round 1

Round 1 is here and we’ve got a full nine-game slate to work through – Thursday night through to Sunday afternoon.

Unlike Round 0, we’ve now got some 2026 game data to factor in for sides that played last week, which sharpens a few of these calls considerably.

This round has thrown up four genuine model-market disagreements, and three of them are significant enough that I’m backing the model over the bookies.

The standout is Sydney vs Brisbane – a 17.5-point gap between what I’m seeing and what the market is pricing. That’s the kind of discrepancy you build a betting week around.

As always, keep stakes sensible and don’t chase. But there’s real value on the card this week if you know where to look.

Thursday, March 12

Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers – MCG

The traditional Thursday night opener and Carlton come in under pressure after fading badly against Sydney last week. Richmond beat them at this exact ground in Round 1 last year.

Despite all that, the model has Carlton winning by 35. The market line sits at 18.5. That’s a 16.5-point gap – and with Sam Walsh looking fit and dangerous, the Blues’ scoring power should do the talking.

→ Full Carlton vs Richmond Prediction

Friday, March 13

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks – MCG

The most loaded storyline of the round. Zach Merrett faces the club he tried to trade to, lost the captaincy over, and now has to front up against on a Friday night.

Forget the drama though – Essendon are decimated by injury and Hawthorn’s numbers are dominant. The model has the Hawks winning by 28. The head-to-head is the clean play here; the line sits at 30.5 and the model doesn’t quite get there.

→ Full Essendon vs Hawthorn Prediction

Saturday, March 14

Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants – Marvel Stadium

Both sides come off wins in Round 0, which makes this one genuinely interesting. The Dogs chased down Brisbane in a thriller; GWS knocked off Hawthorn with Jake Stringer booting five.

The model has the Dogs winning by 25 at home, where their average winning margin over the last five games is a remarkable 53.2 points. The H2H at $1.36 is the cleaner play, but the -20.5 line at $1.90 has a 4.5-point model buffer if you want the bigger return.

→ Full Bulldogs vs GWS Prediction

Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers – GMHBA Stadium

The tightest game of the round on paper. Both sides finished 2025 in identical form and yet the model still lands on Geelong – almost entirely because of Kardinia Park.

With Dangerfield and Cameron both out, this is not a comfortable Cats tip. The net attack advantage actually points Fremantle’s way, and Luke Jackson as a floating ruck-forward is a genuine problem. Back Geelong H2H at $1.49, but keep the stake proportionate to the risk.

→ Full Geelong vs Fremantle Prediction

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions – SCG

This is the bet of the round. The model has Brisbane winning outright by 3 points. The market has Sydney as 14.5-point favourites. That’s a 17.5-point disagreement – the biggest gap on the entire card.

The Lions’ attack rating over the last five games is among the best in the competition. They lost to the Dogs last week, but they were the better side for most of it – their own inaccuracy cost them. The market is overreacting.

→ Full Sydney vs Brisbane Prediction

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows – MCG

Two points. That’s what separates these sides in the model – 76 to 74. The market has Collingwood as 5.5-point favourites, which the model doesn’t support at all.

Adelaide’s ELO rating of 1664.7 is the highest of any away side this round. They’re a genuinely elite team with a chip on their shoulder after last year’s finals capitulation. This is a coin flip – tread carefully.

→ Full Collingwood vs Adelaide Prediction

Sunday, March 15

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power – Marvel Stadium

Another model-market disagreement, and a spicy one. The market has Port Adelaide as favourites. My model has North Melbourne winning at home by 8.

Port’s away scoring-versus-defence rating is the worst of any travelling side this round, and Josh Carr is navigating his first away game as senior coach. North’s Nick Larkey as captain with something to prove is a dangerous combination.

→ Full North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide Prediction

Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints – MCG

The market has St Kilda as 9.5-point favourites on the road. My model has Melbourne winning by 1. That’s a 10.5-point gap and the third model-market disagreement of the day.

New coach Steven King, Jack Steele facing his old club, and a Demons side that will be fired up at home. The Saints are a quality side, but asking them to win away from home by nearly two goals against a motivated Melbourne outfit is too much.

→ Full Melbourne vs St Kilda Prediction

Gold Coast Suns vs West Coast Eagles – People First Stadium

Nobody’s backing West Coast to win – and you shouldn’t either. The $19.00 H2H is a novelty ticket. The real question here is whether Gold Coast cover a 65.5-point line.

My model has them winning by 57. That’s an 8.5-point shortfall on the market’s line – and Gold Coast have a habit of easing off once games are won. West Coast +65.5 is the only sensible angle here.

→ Full Gold Coast vs West Coast Prediction

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