Collingwood vs Adelaide Prediction

Game 3 of Round 10 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 17 sees Collingwood vs Adelaide at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows Predictions

Saturday, May 17, 2025

1:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Collingwood

83 : 91

Adelaide

Win Percentages

Collingwood 49.60%

Adelaide 50.40%

Collingwood

Adelaide

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Collingwood Magpies set at $1.42, and $2.85 for the Adelaide Crows, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Magpies 66.74%
Crows 33.26%

The Betting Edge

Bookies are backing the Magpies pretty strongly here, pricing them at $1.42 with a 66.74% implied probability. Meanwhile, Adelaide are way out at $2.85, suggesting just a 33.26% chance of getting the job done.
But our model doesn’t quite see it that way. It’s basically a coin toss, with the Crows actually sneaking ahead at 50.40% to Collingwood’s 49.60%. That’s a big disconnect, and when the numbers and the market don’t line up, there’s an opportunity.

Adelaide at $2.85 is serious value. If our read is on the money, the market’s overrating the Pies and sleeping on a Crows outfit that’s quietly ticking a lot of the right boxes.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

Collingwood vs Adelaide Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Adelaide by 9.6 points
Average Points Against Per Match: Collingwood by 8.7 points
Power Rank: Collingwood by 2
Average Winning Margin: Adelaide by 4.5 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Adelaide by 14 points
Win %: Collingwood by 11%
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Adelaide by 1 rank
Average Opponent Win %: Adelaide by 8%
Average Opponent Points For: Collingwood by 6 points
Highest Score For: Adelaide by 25 points
Highest Score Against: Collingwood by 15 points
Highest Total Match Score: Adelaide by 74 points
Lowest Total Match Score: Adelaide by 23 points
Adjusted Points For: Adelaide by 14 points
Adjusted Points Against: Collingwood by 15 points
True Power Score (Weighted): Adelaide by 0.6
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 171.6
Game Style Prediction: Balanced Matchup
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Collingwood: 6.33, Adelaide: 7.83 – (Collingwood by 1.5)

Over/Under Tempo: High tempo game incoming, should be plenty of attacking footy.

Game Style Prediction: Balanced Matchup. Both sides can score quickly and defend under pressure, whoever settles into rhythm first takes the edge.

What to do?

The Magpies are a quality side and deserve respect, but $1.42 is way too short when the matchup is this tight. The Crows, on the other hand, are firing in key scoring areas, facing tougher opponents, and outperforming expectations, all while flying under the radar.

At $2.85, Adelaide offers one of the juiciest value plays of the round. Our model says they should be close to even money. If you’re looking to land a bet with big upside, this is it.

Best (and safest) bet is to take the Adelaide +15.5 with this one.

As for multis, take the Adelaide +14.5, OVER 172.5, Adelaide 1-39 for $6.25 with Unibet.