Melbourne vs St Kilda Prediction

Game 6 of Round 12 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on June 1 sees Melbourne vs St Kilda at TIO Traeger Park on Sunday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints Predictions

Sunday, June 1, 2025

3:20 pm AEDT @ TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs

Final Score Prediction

Melbourne

75 : 73

St Kilda

Win Percentages

Melbourne 51.35%

St Kilda 48.65%

Melbourne

St Kilda

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Melbourne Demons set at $1.49, and $2.55 for the St Kilda Saints, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Demons 63.12%
Saints 36.88%

The Betting Edge

The bookies are backing the Demons here, with odds of $1.49 giving them a 63.12% implied chance of winning. Our prediction still has Melbourne in front, but only just, at 51.35%, suggesting the market might be a bit too confident.

St Kilda are paying $2.55, which implies a 36.88% chance. But our model rates them at 48.65%, a fair bit higher than what the bookies reckon.

That creates a solid bit of value on the Saints. If our numbers are right, their true odds should be more like $2.06. So getting them at $2.55 is a smart play for punters chasing an edge.

In a game that looks a lot closer than the odds suggest, St Kilda might be the value pick, definitely one to consider if you’re backing the underdog.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

Melbourne vs St Kilda Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: St Kilda by 1.2
Average Points Against Per Match: Melbourne by 0.7
Power Rank: Even
Average Winning Margin: St Kilda by 16.55
SoS Adjusted Points For: St Kilda by 1
Win Percentage: Melbourne by 9%
Average Opponent Rank: St Kilda by 4
Average Opponent Win %: St Kilda by 4%
Average Opponent Points For: Melbourne by 2
Highest Score For: St Kilda by 4
Highest Score Against: Melbourne by 10
Highest Total Match Score: Melbourne by 2
Lowest Total Match Score: St Kilda by 4
Adjusted Points For: St Kilda by 1
Adjusted Points Against: Melbourne by 6
True Power Score (Weighted): St Kilda by 0.2
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 173.4
Game Style Prediction: Grinder
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Melbourne: 7, St Kilda: 11 – (Melbourne by 4)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Melbourne: 12.33, St Kilda: 13.00 – (Melbourne by 0.67)

Over/Under Tempo: High tempo expected; both sides may look to control possession but still generate plenty of scoring transitions.

Game Style Prediction: Grinder. A tightly contested, physical battle is expected with minimal separation. Could be won in the trenches or late in the game.