AFL Round 0 Tips & Predictions 2026
The 2026 AFL season kicks off this week with Round 0 – five games across Thursday to Sunday before the real thing gets underway.
No 2026 data to lean on yet, so everything is built off how teams finished 2025 and what the model makes of the pre-season numbers.
What I can tell you is this round has thrown up some genuinely interesting model-market disagreements.
A few of these lines look well off to me, and I’ll be putting my money where my mouth is on a couple of them.
Keep stakes sensible – it’s Round 0, combinations are still settling, and anything can happen in season openers.
But don’t let that stop you from finding value where the bookies have got it wrong.
Thursday, March 5
Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues — SCG
The season opener and the market has made it pretty clear what they think — Sydney at $1.36 with a 22.5-point line.
My model agrees the Swans win, but only by 8 points. That’s a 14.5-point gap between what I’m seeing and what you’d need from the favourites on the line.
Carlton’s momentum score actually edges Sydney’s heading in. This isn’t a Blues upset tip — it’s a “Sydney won’t steamroll them” tip.
→ Full Swans vs Blues Prediction
Friday, March 6
Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats — People First Stadium
This is the clearest model-market split of the round. The bookies have Gold Coast as home favourites.
My model has Geelong winning outright by 5 points. The Cats’ momentum score of 110.5 is the highest number I’ve seen across this entire round’s data — that’s a team arriving in serious form.
The line only asks them to stay within 7.5. Given the model has them winning, that’s a very comfortable ask.
→ Full Suns vs Cats Prediction
Saturday, March 7
GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks — Engie Stadium
The biggest model-market gap of the entire round. My model has GWS winning outright by 2 points.
The market needs Hawthorn to win by 9.5. Both teams’ momentum scores are virtually identical and their recent form is the same.
Yet the market is pricing this like a Hawks walkover. I don’t buy it — and GWS +9.5 at $1.90 is the best value line bet on the card this week.
→ Full GWS vs Hawks Prediction
Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs — The Gabba
Brisbane are the heavy home favourites at $1.44 and the market has set a 15.5-point line.
My model has the Bulldogs winning outright. Their momentum score of 112.3 is right up there with the best numbers across the round.
This isn’t a case of backing a no-hoper on the line — the data genuinely points to the Dogs keeping this very close, if not winning it.
→ Full Lions vs Bulldogs Prediction
Sunday, March 8
St Kilda Saints vs Collingwood Magpies — MCG
The round closer and the market genuinely can’t split them — $1.91 vs $1.93. Essentially a coin flip.
My model isn’t seeing it that way though, landing on Collingwood by 8 points. Interestingly, St Kilda had the better recent form coming in, which makes the model’s Magpies call worth noting.
At near even-money, backing a team your model has winning by over a goal is about as straightforward as it gets.
→ Full Magpies vs Saints Prediction
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