Carlton vs Essendon Prediction
Game 7 of Round 13 of the 2026 Toyota AFL…
Essendon vs North Melbourne Prediction
Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Predictions
Saturday, March 28, 2026
7:35pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Essendon Bombers
86 : 93
North Melbourne Kangaroos
The Setup
This one comes loaded with contradictions. Essendon have won 12 straight against North Melbourne – their last loss to the Roos dating back to 2016. North haven’t had a better chance to end that streak in years.
The Bombers are 0-2 and have copped back-to-back 60-plus point belts. Their losing run stretches to 15 games. Their pressure rating through the first two rounds was historically poor – among the worst recorded in recent memory. That’s not a slump, that’s a structural problem.
North’s away_momentum of 102.4 is strong, and at -45.40 it’s the biggest single SHAP pull in the model toward the Kangaroos. But the model also flags something interesting – Essendon’s net_attack_advantage (+41.75) and home_attack_vs_def (+30.64) both push back toward the home side hard. Those numbers suggest the Bombers’ attacking output relative to North’s defence isn’t as lopsided as the ladder suggests. The model lands at North by 7 – a competitive game, not a blowout.
The market has North as 12.5-point favourites. That’s a 5.5-point gap from what I’m seeing, and it’s the same structural setup as the GWS game on Friday – both sides agree on the winner, but the margin is where the value hides.
Best Bets
I’m not backing Essendon to win outright. Fifteen straight losses and those pressure numbers are hard to ignore.
But the model sees this as a 7-point game. Getting the Bombers at +12.5 on the line means North need to cover more than the model thinks they’re capable of. Given Essendon’s attacking metrics are keeping them in the contest on paper, and the 12-game head-to-head streak adds psychological pressure on North, this feels like a game that stays close.
The play is Essendon Bombers +12.5 at $1.90. Moderate stake.
BEST BET
Confidence
6/10
What to Watch
- Nick Larkey’s goal threat: He’s kicked 10 goals in his first two games for North and is the focal point of their forward line. If Essendon’s defence gives him the same space they gave Jason Horne-Francis last week – who kicked 3.2 against them – this could blow out quickly.
- Essendon’s pressure rating: Their historically poor pressure numbers in the first two rounds are the biggest red flag here. If they show even a moderate improvement in contest intensity at Marvel Stadium, they stay in this game. If it’s more of the same, North cover comfortably.
- Zach Merrett’s influence: He’s been Essendon’s most reliable operator and their go-to ball-winner all season. How much of the game flows through him will largely dictate whether the Bombers are competitive or whether this slides into another big loss.
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