Sydney vs Carlton Prediction

Game 2 of Round 10 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 16 sees Sydney vs Carlton at the SCG on Friday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues Predictions

Friday, May 16, 2025

7:40 pm AEDT @ SCG, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Sydney

74 : 77

Carlton

Win Percentages

Sydney 43.35%

Carlton 56.65%

Sydney

Carlton

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Sydney Swans set at $1.71, and $2.15 for the Carlton Blues, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Swans 55.70%
Blues 44.30%

The Betting Edge

Unibet’s giving the Sydney Swans the edge at $1.71, which translates to an implied probability of 55.70%. The Carlton Blues are out at $2.15, meaning the bookies reckon they’ve only got a 44.30% shot.
But our model’s not buying it, we’ve actually got Carlton with a 56.65% chance of getting up, while the Swans sit back at 43.35%. That’s a decent swing, and when you match that with the odds, you’re looking at a clear value play on the Blues.

Carlton are stronger across the board. If our read holds, the bookies are giving you a gift at $2.15.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

Sydney vs Carlton Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Carlton by 2 points
Average Points Against Per Match: Carlton by 9 points
Power Rank: Carlton by 7
Average Winning Margin: Carlton by 19.17 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Carlton by 1 point
Win %: Carlton by 11%
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Sydney by 2 ranks
Average Opponent Win %: Carlton by 3%
Average Opponent Points For: Sydney by 2 points
Highest Score For: Carlton by 36 points
Highest Score Against: Carlton by 7 points
Highest Total Match Score: Carlton by 28 points
Lowest Total Match Score: Carlton by 24 points
Adjusted Points For: Carlton by 1 point
Adjusted Points Against: Carlton by 7 points
True Power Score (Weighted): Carlton by 5.2
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 157
Game Style Prediction: Low Scoring
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Sydney: 14.33, Carlton: 6.83 – (Carlton by 7.5)

Over/Under Tempo: Low-tempo matchup likely to keep things tight on the scoreboard.

Game Style Prediction: Low Scoring. Expect pressure footy with limited space and every goal earned.

What to do?

The Swans might be favourites, but it’s Carlton who are looking like the better bet. They’ve been sharper, more efficient, and are dominating the stat sheet – and our model says they’ve actually got the upper hand.

At $2.15, the Blues are serious value. In a close, gritty contest like this, those little edges matter. If you’re chasing a bet with some upside, Carlton’s your play.

Best bet is to take the Carlton +5.5 with this one, also looking at the UNDER is a decent way to go.

As for multis, take the Carlton +5.5, UNDER 163.5, Carlton 1-39 for $4.60 with Unibet.