AFL Betting Tips Round 7
Nine games across four days – and the biggest disagreement…
Richmond vs Essendon Prediction
Richmond and Essendon Set for Saturday Night Scrap at the ‘G
Home • $2.90
VS
Away • $1.38
Saturday • MCG • Clear, 11.5°C, minimal wind
Here’s a crazy stat to kick us off – both Richmond and Essendon have lost their last five games straight.
That’s ten consecutive losses between them heading into this Saturday night clash at the MCG.
I’ve been tracking these teams closely, and while the market has Essendon as clear favourites at $1.38, this matchup might be tighter than those odds suggest.
Richmond showed fight in their Dreamtime loss earlier this year, and with both sides desperate to break their losing streaks, we could see an unpredictable contest under lights.
KRUZEY’S TIPS
After crunching the numbers on these two struggling sides, I’m seeing value where others might see risk.
Yes, they’re both in terrible form, but that’s exactly why the odds are offering opportunities.
The total points market particularly caught my eye – both teams are leaking goals like crazy, and their defensive woes could turn this into a shootout.
All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting
KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET
Look, I’ll be honest – predicting a game between two teams on five-game losing streaks isn’t exactly straightforward.
But that’s where the data comes in handy.
My model’s found some interesting edges, particularly around that inflated line for Richmond.
Our Data Says: Richmond 64, Essendon 70 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)
That gives Essendon a 52.6% win chance, Richmond 47.4%
Bookmakers have Essendon at $1.38 (72.5% implied) vs Richmond at $2.90 (34.5% implied)
The Market Edge: Richmond offers significant value – our 47.4% vs market’s 34.5% implied chance
The six-point margin in our prediction versus the 15.5-point line? That’s where the smart money should be looking. Essendon deserve favouritism, but not by this much.
Our Prediction
RIC 64 | ESS 70
Win Probability
RIC 47.4% | ESS 52.6%
Market Edge
13%
on Richmond
FORM LINE
In my experience with teams on extended losing streaks, something’s got to give – and it usually happens in unexpected ways. Richmond’s last five reads like a horror story: losses to Geelong (72 points), Adelaide (68 points), West Coast (79 points), Sydney (44 points), and GWS (3 points). They’re averaging just 55 points while conceding 108.2.
Essendon’s streak isn’t much prettier – down to Gold Coast (41 points), Fremantle (41 points), Geelong (95 points), Carlton (8 points), and Brisbane (18 points). The Bombers are managing 67 points per game but shipping 107.6. That’s both teams leaking over 100 points during their losing runs, which explains why the total looks vulnerable.
Richmond Tigers
LLLLL
- losses to Geelong (72 points), Adelaide (68 points), West Coast (79 points), Sydney (44 points), and GWS (3 points)
Essendon Bombers
LLLLL
- down to Gold Coast (41 points), Fremantle (41 points), Geelong (95 points), Carlton (8 points), and Brisbane (18 points)
KEY STATS
Here’s what jumped out when comparing season averages – Richmond average 8.9 goals per game at home, while Essendon kick 10.5 on the road.
That’s a combined 19.4 goals, or about 116 points before behinds. Both teams hover around 73% disposal efficiency, suggesting they can move the ball when they get it.
The clearance battle tilts Essendon’s way (35.8 to 33.8), as does contested possession (129.1 to 121.4). But here’s the kicker – neither team’s been able to translate these advantages into wins lately.
Richmond generate 44.3 inside 50s per home game, while Essendon manage 46.4 away. With both defences struggling, those entries could translate to plenty of scoring.
GOALS PER GAME
Essendon
10.5
10.5
Richmond
8.9
8.9
CLEARANCES
Essendon
35.8
35.8
Richmond
33.8
33.8
CONTESTED POSSESSION
Essendon
129.1
129.1
Richmond
121.4
121.4
INSIDE 50S
Essendon
46.4
46.4
Richmond
44.3
44.3
SELECTION WATCH
Team selections yet to be announced – we’ll update our analysis once the lineups drop.
THE FINAL WORD
Bottom line – we’ve got two desperate teams, leaky defences, and a Saturday night stage at the MCG. The weather’s perfect for footy (clear, 11.5°C, minimal wind), and both sides know they need to attack to break their losing runs.
My best bet is Richmond +15.5. The line feels too generous for a team with nothing to lose at home, and my model’s six-point margin suggests this will be much tighter than the market predicts.
The total points over 163.5 offers additional value – with both teams conceding 100+ points during their horror runs and the MCG’s fast deck under lights, goals should flow.
The Bombers should win, but in a higher-scoring, tighter contest than the market predicts.
Related:
AFL Draw
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AFL Injury List
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