Hawthorn vs GWS Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 3

Hawthorn Hawks vs GWS Giants Predictions

Game 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership Round 4 predictions sees Hawthorn vs GWS on March 29 at University of Tasmania Stadium on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, March 29, 2025

7:35 pm @ University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston

Final Score Prediction

Hawks

86 : 85

Giants

Win Percentages

Hawthorn 51.5%

GWS 48.5%

Hawthorn

GWS

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Hawthorn Hawks set at $1.48, and $2.65 for the Greater Western Sydney Giants, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Hawks 64.15%
Giants 35.85%

Opportunity Bet

So what’s the go? Well, the bookies are giving the Hawks a far bigger edge than what the numbers suggest. Our model sees this as nearly a toss-up, which means the Giants are being seriously undervalued in the market.

If the Giants really have a 48.5% chance of winning, their true odds should be closer to $2.06, not the generous $2.65 currently on offer. That’s a clear edge worth taking a look at.

What to do?

There’s definite value backing GWS. The market has underrated them, and if our data holds up, punters could be getting overs at $2.65 for a team with nearly an even-money chance.

The Hawks do have a huge following down at UTAS which will give them a little pep rally boosting their confidence heading onto the field, which has historically went in the favour down in Tassie, but statistically this game is as close as they come.

A Hawks winning margin of 1-39 is the best move here.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.10 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Hawthorn @ $1.48 with
Ladbrokes

Line Bet:

GWS +12.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 166.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Hawthorn vs GWS SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Hawthorn: 95.7, GWS: 90.5 – (Hawthorn by 5.2 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Hawthorn: 73.7, GWS: 63.0 – (GWS by 10.7 points)
Average Winning Margin: Hawthorn: 22.0, GWS: 27.5 – (GWS by 5.5 points)
Average Losing Margin: Hawthorn: N/A, GWS: N/A – (Even)
HT/FT Double %: Hawthorn: 66.7%, GWS: 100.0% – (GWS by 33.3%)
Highest Score For: Hawthorn: 111, GWS: 104 – (Hawthorn by 7 points)
Highest Score Against: Hawthorn: 85, GWS: 74 – (GWS by 11 points)
Biggest Win: Hawthorn: 26, GWS: 52 – (GWS by 26 points)
Biggest Loss: Hawthorn: N/A, GWS: N/A – (Even)
Highest Total Match Score: Hawthorn: 196, GWS: 156 – (Hawthorn by 40 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Hawthorn: 140, GWS: 151 – (Hawthorn by 11 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Hawthorn: 65.2%, GWS: 57.8% – (Hawthorn by 7.4%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Hawthorn: 53.4%, GWS: 45.9% – (GWS better by 7.5%)
Current Streak: Hawthorn: W3, GWS: W2 – (Hawthorn momentum)
Current Form: Hawthorn: WWW, GWS: WW – (Hawthorn edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Hawthorn: 0.0%, GWS: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Hawthorn: 100.0%, GWS: 100.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Hawthorn: 100.0%, GWS: 0.0% – (Hawthorn by 100%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: GWS won by 2 points (84–82) on 4th August 2024